Rivian Automotive, Inc.
- What it sells
- Automotive is 71% of revenue (fiscal year to Dec 2025), down from 93% two years earlier.
- Growing?
- Yes: revenue up 38% on a year earlier (quarter ended Sep 2026).
- Expensive?
- Price-to-sales (P/S) 2.9×. Above the peer median of 0.4x. The market pays more per $1 of revenue than for peers.
- Analysts?
- 56% of 25 say buy; average 12-month target $18.08, 41% above today's price.
- Risky?
- Much swingier than most large companies: its price swung 66% over the past year (the S&P 500's 14%), and it fell as much as 95% since Nov 2021.
Rivian Automotive, Inc. designs and manufactures battery-electric vehicles including the R1T pickup and R1S SUV, and sells commercial electric vans (e.g., EDV) to fleet customers, generating revenue primarily from vehicle sales plus software & services and regulatory credits.
More about Rivian Automotive
It also operates a direct-to-consumer model with supporting service, charging, and accessories offerings.
Market Position
Rivian competes in the U.S. EV market—particularly the electric pickup/SUV and commercial van niches—against larger OEMs and pure-play EV manufacturers, differentiating through a vertically integrated vehicle/software stack and brand positioning around adventure-oriented utility. Production scale and cost reduction remain central to competitiveness versus higher-volume peers.
Key Segments
Rivian reports two main segments: Automotive (EVs, parts/accessories, extended service contracts, and certain credits) and Software and Services (including vehicle repair/maintenance and other services).
How has the stock done?
Over the past month RIVN fell 5.5%; the consumer discretionary ETF (XLY) rose 7.3% and the S&P 500 fell 2.7%.
Over the past six months RIVN fell 8.2%; the consumer discretionary ETF (XLY) rose 1.8% and the S&P 500 rose 2.6%.
Over the past year RIVN fell 26.9%; the consumer discretionary ETF (XLY) rose 1.3% and the S&P 500 rose 10.8%.
Over five years RIVN fell 90.2%; the consumer discretionary ETF (XLY) rose 18.2% and the S&P 500 rose 62.0%.
From Nov 16, 2021 to Apr 15, 2024, the deepest drop from a high since Nov 2021
How much the price swings in a year; the S&P 500's was 14%
When the S&P 500 moves 1%, the stock has moved about 1.8% the same way
Show the earnings releases
| Released | Quarter | Revenue | EPS vs estimate | Stock, day after | 5 days after |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 29, 2026 | ended Sep 2026 | $2.2B (+38% vs a year earlier) | −$0.63 vs −$0.73 (beat) | +4.2% | +13.9% |
| Jul 30, 2026 | ended Jun 2026 | $1.7B (+27% vs a year earlier) | −$0.63 vs −$0.78 (beat) | −6.8% | −5.8% |
| Apr 30, 2026 | ended Mar 2026 | $1.4B (+11% vs a year earlier) | −$0.33 vs −$0.72 (beat) | −6.5% | −11.7% |
| Feb 12, 2026 | ended Dec 2025 | $1.3B (−26% vs a year earlier) | −$0.66 vs −$0.79 (beat) | +20.1% | +3.5% |
| Nov 4, 2025 | ended Sep 2025 | $1.6B (+78% vs a year earlier) | — | +16.9% | +36.6% |
| Aug 5, 2025 | ended Jun 2025 | $1.3B (+13% vs a year earlier) | — | −6.2% | −3.5% |
| May 6, 2025 | ended Mar 2025 | $1.2B (+3% vs a year earlier) | — | −6.1% | +9.7% |
| Feb 20, 2025 | ended Dec 2024 | $1.7B (+32% vs a year earlier) | — | −6.9% | −16.7% |
| Nov 7, 2024 | ended Sep 2024 | $874M (−35% vs a year earlier) | — | +9.1% | +6.2% |
| Aug 6, 2024 | ended Jun 2024 | $1.2B (+3% vs a year earlier) | — | −5.6% | −7.3% |
| May 7, 2024 | ended Mar 2024 | $1.2B (+82% vs a year earlier) | — | −0.6% | +8.3% |
| Feb 21, 2024 | ended Dec 2023 | $1.3B (+98% vs a year earlier) | — | −27.9% | −28.9% |
| Nov 7, 2023 | ended Sep 2023 | $1.3B (+149% vs a year earlier) | — | −1.0% | −1.6% |
| Aug 8, 2023 | ended Jun 2023 | $1.1B (+208% vs a year earlier) | — | −7.9% | −14.4% |
| May 9, 2023 | ended Mar 2023 | $661M (+596% vs a year earlier) | — | +1.7% | −5.7% |
| Feb 28, 2023 | ended Dec 2022 | $663M (+1128% vs a year earlier) | — | −14.6% | −20.7% |
| Nov 9, 2022 | ended Sep 2022 | $536M (+53500% vs a year earlier) | — | +3.5% | +4.6% |
| Aug 11, 2022 | ended Jun 2022 | $364M | — | +4.0% | −4.0% |
| May 11, 2022 | ended Mar 2022 | $95M | — | +6.6% | +19.7% |
| Mar 10, 2022 | ended Dec 2021 | $54M | — | −13.4% | −4.1% |
| Dec 16, 2021 | ended Sep 2021 | $1.0M | — | −15.0% | −15.8% |
Change in closing price from the first day shown, or with Price the closing price itself. Prices: Yahoo Finance, to Nov 12, 2026. Dashed lines: the days the company released earnings (its SEC 8-K filings); EPS estimates: Yahoo Finance. The stock's move after a release runs from the last close before its day to the close the day after (or five days after), so a release before the open counts like one after the close.
Is the business growing?
Revenue was $2.2B in the quarter ended Sep 2026, up 38% from a year earlier.
Show the data
| Quarter ended | Revenue | vs a year earlier |
|---|---|---|
| Dec 2022 | $663M | +1128% |
| Mar 2023 | $661M | +596% |
| Jun 2023 | $1.1B | +208% |
| Sep 2023 | $1.3B | +149% |
| Dec 2023 | $1.3B | +98% |
| Mar 2024 | $1.2B | +82% |
| Jun 2024 | $1.2B | +3% |
| Sep 2024 | $874M | −35% |
| Dec 2024 | $1.7B | +32% |
| Mar 2025 | $1.2B | +3% |
| Jun 2025 | $1.3B | +13% |
| Sep 2025 | $1.6B | +78% |
| Dec 2025 | $1.3B | −26% |
| Mar 2026 | $1.4B | +11% |
| Jun 2026 | $1.7B | +27% |
| Sep 2026 | $2.2B | +38% |
Revenue went from $1.7B in FY22 to $5.4B in FY25; net income from −$6.8B to −$3.6B.
Show the data
| Fiscal year | Revenue | Net income |
|---|---|---|
| FY22 | $1.7B | −$6.8B |
| FY23 | $4.4B | −$5.4B |
| FY24 | $5.0B | −$4.7B |
| FY25 | $5.4B | −$3.6B |
In the fiscal year to Dec 2025, Automotive was 71% and Software and Services was 29% of revenue; Automotive fell from 93% in the fiscal year to Dec 2023.
Show the data
| Fiscal year | Part | Revenue | Share |
|---|---|---|---|
| FY2023 | Automotive | $4.1B | 93% |
| FY2023 | Software and Services | $302M | 7% |
| FY2024 | Automotive | $4.5B | 90% |
| FY2024 | Software and Services | $484M | 10% |
| FY2025 | Automotive | $3.8B | 71% |
| FY2025 | Software and Services | $1.6B | 29% |
A year earlier −$0.96
Diluted, from SEC filings
Quarters: Rivian Automotive, Inc.'s SEC filings, named by the month they end. Fiscal years: Rivian Automotive, Inc.'s annual reports to the SEC.
How it makes money
The company loses $67.7 for every $100 of revenue. Operating expenses exceed all of gross profit.
Show the data
| Quarter ended | Gross | Operating | Net |
|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 2022 | −150.8% | −270.7% | −259.9% |
| Mar 2023 | −80.9% | −216.8% | −204.1% |
| Jun 2023 | −36.8% | −114.6% | −106.6% |
| Sep 2023 | −35.7% | −107.7% | −102.2% |
| Dec 2023 | −46.1% | −120.2% | −115.7% |
| Mar 2024 | −43.8% | −123.3% | −120.1% |
| Jun 2024 | −38.9% | −118.7% | −125.8% |
| Sep 2024 | −44.9% | −133.8% | −125.9% |
| Dec 2024 | 9.8% | −38.1% | −42.9% |
| Mar 2025 | 16.6% | −52.8% | −44.0% |
| Jun 2025 | −15.8% | −85.5% | −85.7% |
| Sep 2025 | 1.5% | −63.1% | −75.3% |
| Dec 2025 | 9.3% | −64.8% | −63.1% |
| Mar 2026 | 8.6% | −63.8% | −30.1% |
| Jun 2026 | 10.8% | −50.4% | −50.2% |
| Sep 2026 | 8.2% | −40.9% | −42.4% |
Circled: Mar 2026 (net −30.1%, operating −63.8%). Net margin is usually about 4 points above operating margin; in that quarter something below operating income (a tax charge or benefit, a gain or loss on investments, a write-down) moved it, not the business itself.
+191.0 pts over 3 years
+347.0 pts over 3 years
+339.6 pts over 3 years
Each margin is that line of the income statement divided by revenue. Fiscal year: Rivian Automotive, Inc.'s annual reports to the SEC; quarters: SEC filings.
Is inventory piling up?
Rivian Automotive held $1.8B of inventory at the end of Sep 2026, up 8.6% from a year earlier, while its revenue for the quarter rose 38.3% against the same quarter a year earlier. Inventory lagged sales by 29.7 points. At the last four quarters' cost of sales, the inventory would last 110 days, against 106 a year earlier.
At the end of Sep 2026, +8.6% on a year earlier
Quarter ended Sep 2026
106 a year earlier
Show the data
| Quarter ended | Inventory | vs a year earlier | Revenue vs a year earlier | Inventory days |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 2023 | $2.6B | +94.4% | +98.3% | 148 |
| Mar 2024 | $2.8B | +53.4% | +82.1% | 146 |
| Jun 2024 | $2.6B | +19.5% | +3.3% | 133 |
| Sep 2024 | $2.7B | +5.9% | −34.6% | 150 |
| Dec 2024 | $2.2B | −14.2% | +31.9% | 133 |
| Mar 2025 | $2.6B | −7.4% | +3.0% | 173 |
| Jun 2025 | $2.1B | −18.6% | +12.5% | 143 |
| Sep 2025 | $1.6B | −38.9% | +78.3% | 106 |
| Dec 2025 | $1.6B | −29.1% | −25.8% | 111 |
| Mar 2026 | $1.5B | −40.4% | +11.4% | 103 |
| Jun 2026 | $1.7B | −21.0% | +27.2% | 111 |
| Sep 2026 | $1.8B | +8.6% | +38.3% | 110 |
From Rivian Automotive, Inc.'s SEC filings: inventory at each quarter end, against the same quarter end a year earlier, and the quarter's revenue against the same quarter a year earlier. Inventory days: inventory over the cost of sales of the four quarters to that date, times 365. Gross margin: gross profit over revenue, by quarter.
How long can the cash last?
Rivian Automotive had $5.5B in cash and short-term investments at the end of Sep 2026. It burned $4.2B over the last four quarters (operating cash flow minus capital spending), so at that pace the cash lasts about 5 quarters. Its diluted share count is up 43% from two years earlier.
Cash and short-term investments over the average quarterly burn
Operating cash flow minus capital spending
Show the data
| Quarter ended | Cash and short-term investments | Free cash flow | Raised selling shares |
|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 2023 | $9.4B | −$1.4B | $22M |
| Mar 2024 | $7.9B | −$1.5B | $2.0M |
| Jun 2024 | $7.9B | −$1.0B | $31M |
| Sep 2024 | $6.7B | −$1.2B | $0 |
| Dec 2024 | $7.7B | $856M | $0 |
| Mar 2025 | $7.2B | −$526M | $3.0M |
| Jun 2025 | $7.5B | −$398M | $747M |
| Sep 2025 | $7.1B | −$421M | $0 |
| Dec 2025 | $6.1B | −$1.1B | $0 |
| Mar 2026 | $4.8B | −$1.1B | — |
| Jun 2026 | $5.3B | −$849M | — |
| Sep 2026 | $5.5B | −$1.1B | $1.3B |
From Rivian Automotive, Inc.'s SEC filings: cash and cash equivalents plus short-term investments (none where none is filed) at each quarter end; free cash flow is operating cash flow minus capital spending; shares are each quarter's diluted weighted average as filed, since the stock's listing and its latest split (a 10-K gives no fourth-quarter figure). Shown while the last four quarters' operating cash flow and net income are both negative.
Customers and suppliers
In its latest annual report Rivian Automotive buys from Amazon; sells to Volkswagen, Amazon. Since then its 8-K filings name SMB as a partner (Mar 19, 2026), Uber as a partner and a customer (Mar 19, 2026).
Their suppliers
Suppliers
RIVNRivian AutomotiveCustomers
Rivian Automotive's 10-Q for the quarter to Jun 2026 gives one customer's share of its revenue: Chase Bank (9%).
Show the filings' numbers
| Period | Customer | Share of revenue | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|
| Quarter ended Sep 2024 | Chase Bank | 42% | 10-Q filed Nov 4, 2025 |
| Year ended Dec 2024 | Chase Bank | 37% | 10-K filed Feb 12, 2026 |
| Quarter ended Mar 2025 | Chase Bank | 34% | 10-Q filed Apr 30, 2026 |
| Quarter ended Jun 2025 | Chase Bank | 45% | 10-Q filed Jul 30, 2026 |
| Quarter ended Sep 2025 | Chase Bank | 45% | 10-Q filed Oct 29, 2026 |
| Year ended Dec 2025 | Chase Bank | 36% | 10-K filed Feb 12, 2026 |
| Quarter ended Mar 2026 | Chase Bank | 18% | 10-Q filed Apr 30, 2026 |
| Quarter ended Jun 2026 | Chase Bank | 9% | 10-Q filed Jul 30, 2026 |
From Rivian Automotive, Inc.'s 10-Q and 10-K filings (XBRL): each customer whose share of revenue a filing tags, under the filing's own label, so “Customer A” in one filing can be another company in the next; a later filing's figures for a period replace an earlier one's. Rings are fiscal years: a 10-K gives the year, not its fourth quarter.
Partners
Amazon AMZNinvested in Rivian Automotive · Holds Rivian shares and a warrant12.7% of voting power as of December 31, 2025, including warrant for 3,723,050 Class A shares
Volkswagen VOW3.DEDevelop vehicle electrical architecture and software50% equity interest in the Joint Venture
Uber UBERDevelops, deploys, and operates autonomous vehicles together · 8-K, Mar 19, 2026Changes since the previous annual report (10-K filed Feb 24, 2025)
Tesla TSLANo longer named (was a partner)Named in other companies’ filings
Amazon AMZNinvested in Rivian Automotive · Equity investmentShow the filing's words
| Company | Role | In the filing's words |
|---|---|---|
| Volkswagen | partner · joint venture with it | “The Company and Volkswagen Group each contributed working capital, certain assets, and personnel to the Joint Venture in exchange for 50% each of the equity interests in the Joint Venture.” |
| Volkswagen | customer | “As of December 31, 2024 and December 31, 2025, $1,526 million and $1,794 million, respectively, of the Company’s deferred revenues consisted of consideration received from Volkswagen Group in connection with the Joint Venture, including consideration received for a license of intellectual property related to Rivian’s existing vehicle electrical architecture and software technology, noncash consideration, and advance payments for vehicle electrical architecture and software development services.” |
| Amazon | customer | “We launched the Rivian Commercial Van platform, which underpins the Electric Delivery Van (“EDV”) variant, designed and engineered by Rivian in collaboration with Amazon.com, Inc. and its affiliates (collectively, “Amazon”), our first commercial customer....Amazon has ordered an initial volume of 100,000 EDVs globally, subject to modification.” |
| Amazon | partner · invested in Rivian Automotive | “Amazon is the parent company of both Logistics and Amazon.com NV Investment Holdings LLC, which beneficially owns shares of our capital stock (including shares issuable upon the exercise of a warrant to purchase 3,723,050 shares of Class A common stock, as amended) representing 12.7% of our voting power as of December 31, 2025.” |
| Amazon | supplier | “We primarily rely on Amazon Web Services in the United States to host our cloud computing and storage needs.” |
| Also | partner · Rivian Automotive invested in it | “Other expense, net increased for the year ended December 31, 2025 primarily due to $186 million of expense recorded for the settlement of securities class action litigation, net of expected insurance recoveries, which was partially offset by the cumulative gain on our equity method investment in Also, Inc. (refer to Note 16 “Commitments and Contingencies” and Note 2 "Equity Method Investments" to our consolidated financial statements included in this Form 10-K for more information).” |
| Eclipse Ventures | partner · invested in Rivian Automotive | “In November 2025, Mind Robotics, Inc. and Mind Robotics, LLC (together, “Mind Robotics”) were established to focus on advancement of industrial AI and robotics and issued Series Seed preferred shares to third parties (primarily Eclipse Ventures) in exchange for approximately $112 million, as well as to Rivian in exchange for cash and a license to intellectual property developed for use in industrial automation with a combined fair value of approximately $128 million.” |
| SMB (8-K filed Mar 19, 2026) | partner · invested in Rivian Automotive | “Pursuant to the Subscription Agreement, within five business days of the satisfaction or waiver of customary closing conditions, including the receipt or waiver of required regulatory approvals, and upon payment of $300 million by SMB, the Company will issue a number of shares of Common Stock to SMB equal to $300 million divided by the price per share of Common Stock based on the arithmetic average of the daily volume-weighted average sale price for the thirty consecutive trading days ending on March 17, 2026.” |
| Uber (8-K filed Mar 19, 2026) | partner · co-develops with it | “On the Effective Date, in connection with the execution and delivery of the Subscription Agreement, Rivian, LLC, a Delaware limited liability company and wholly-owned subsidiary of the Company ("Subsidiary"), entered into a Master Framework Agreement (the "Master Framework Agreement") by and among the Subsidiary, the Company and Uber, governing the collaboration between Subsidiary and Uber to develop, deploy, and operate autonomous vehicles on the Uber platform.” |
| Uber (8-K filed Mar 19, 2026) | customer | “Uber has committed to purchase a minimum number of Company Vehicles during specified guarantee periods, with the purchase volume and pricing to be determined in accordance with the procedures set forth in the Master Framework Agreement and related ancillary agreements....Uber will also pay certain licensing fees in connection with its use of the Company’s Level 4 autonomous driving system software.” |
| Amazon (10-K filed Feb 6, 2026) | invested in Rivian Automotive | “Our equity and equity warrant investments in publicly traded companies, which include our equity investment in Rivian, represent $5.0 billion of our investments as of December 31, 2025, and are recorded at fair value, which is subject to market price volatility.” |
Only the companies Rivian Automotive names in its 10-K filed Feb 12, 2026 (SEC) and in the 8-Ks it filed since, each with its date. Named in other companies' filings: those whose own latest annual report or an 8-K since names Rivian Automotive. The supply chain joins the latest annual reports of the companies on it and the 8-Ks they filed since: a link shows when either side's report names the other, so it grows as more reports are read. Hover a name for the filing's own words.
Is it expensive?
Currently unprofitable, so P/E does not apply, so we look at price-to-sales instead: 2.9x, above the peer median of 0.4x. Revenue is up 38% from a year ago.
Above the peer median of 0.4x. The market pays more per $1 of revenue than for peers.
Show the data
| Company | Price-to-sales (P/S) |
|---|---|
| TSLA · Tesla, Inc. | 15.2× |
| RIVN · Rivian Automotive, Inc. | 2.9× |
| GM · General Motors Company | 0.4× |
| F · Ford Motor Company | 0.3× |
| CYD · China Yuchai International Limited | — |
Rivian Automotive, Inc. is currently unprofitable, so P/E does not apply. We use price-to-sales instead: market cap as a multiple of revenue.
What analysts expect
The average analyst price target is $18.08, 41% above the current price; 56% of 25 analysts rate it a buy; earnings beat estimates in all of the last 4 quarters.
Buy or Strong Buy: 14 analysts (56%). Sell or Strong Sell: 5.
Over the past year the average of the analysts' latest price targets went from $14.09 to $18.00 (+28%), while RIVN went from $16.39 to $12.80 (−22%). In the past three months targets were cut 3 times and never raised. 8 upgrades and 4 downgrades over the year; the latest: UBS moved it to Buy from Neutral on Nov 2, 2026.
Show every change
| Date | Firm | Change | Rating | Target |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 9, 2026 | Stifel | Target kept | Buy | $22.00 |
| Nov 6, 2026 | DA Davidson | Target cut | Neutral | $15.00, was $17.00 |
| Nov 2, 2026 | UBS | Upgrade | Buy, was Neutral | $17.00 |
| Oct 30, 2026 | Jefferies | Upgrade | Buy, was Hold | $17.00 |
| Oct 30, 2026 | Cantor Fitzgerald | Target cut | Neutral | $16.00, was $19.00 |
| Oct 30, 2026 | Needham | Target cut | Buy | $18.00, was $23.00 |
| Sep 14, 2026 | Citigroup | Began coverage | Neutral | $18.00 |
| Jul 31, 2026 | RBC Capital | Target raised | Sector Perform | $16.00, was $14.00 |
| Jul 31, 2026 | Morgan Stanley | Target raised | Underweight | $14.00, was $13.00 |
| Jul 31, 2026 | TD Cowen | Target raised | Buy | $21.00, was $20.00 |
| Jul 31, 2026 | Wells Fargo | Target raised | Equal-Weight | $16.00, was $15.00 |
| Jul 31, 2026 | Needham | Target kept | Buy | $23.00 |
| Jul 28, 2026 | Cantor Fitzgerald | Target kept | Neutral | $19.00 |
| Jul 27, 2026 | Piper Sandler | Upgrade | Overweight, was Neutral | $20.00, was $18.00 |
| Jul 14, 2026 | Morgan Stanley | Target raised | Underweight | $13.00, was $12.00 |
| Jul 9, 2026 | UBS | Target raised | Neutral | $17.00, was $16.00 |
| Jul 8, 2026 | BNP Paribas | Target raised | Outperform | $24.00, was $22.00 |
| Jul 7, 2026 | Jefferies | Target raised | Hold | $17.00, was $16.00 |
| Jun 10, 2026 | Needham | Target kept | Buy | $23.00 |
| Jun 3, 2026 | TD Cowen | Target kept | Buy | $20.00 |
| May 11, 2026 | DA Davidson | Target raised | Neutral | $15.00, was $14.00 |
| May 1, 2026 | BNP Paribas | Target cut | Outperform | $22.00, was $23.00 |
| May 1, 2026 | Cantor Fitzgerald | Target raised | Neutral | $19.00, was $18.00 |
| May 1, 2026 | Benchmark | Target kept | Buy | $25.00 |
| May 1, 2026 | Needham | Target kept | Buy | $23.00 |
| Apr 10, 2026 | Tigress Financial | Target kept | Buy | $25.00 |
| Apr 6, 2026 | Canaccord Genuity | Target kept | Buy | $22.00 |
| Apr 1, 2026 | DA Davidson | Upgrade | Neutral, was Underperform | $14.00 |
| Mar 20, 2026 | Canaccord Genuity | Target raised | Buy | $22.00, was $21.00 |
| Mar 10, 2026 | TD Cowen | Upgrade | Buy, was Hold | $20.00, was $17.00 |
| Feb 17, 2026 | Stifel | Target raised | Buy | $20.00, was $17.00 |
| Feb 17, 2026 | DA Davidson | Downgrade | Underperform, was Neutral | $14.00, was $15.00 |
| Feb 13, 2026 | UBS | Upgrade | Neutral, was Sell | $16.00, was $15.00 |
| Feb 13, 2026 | TD Cowen | Target raised | Hold | $17.00, was $13.00 |
| Feb 13, 2026 | Wedbush | Target kept | Outperform | $25.00 |
| Feb 13, 2026 | Piper Sandler | Target cut | Neutral | $18.00, was $20.00 |
| Feb 13, 2026 | Wells Fargo | Target raised | Equal-Weight | $15.00, was $12.00 |
| Feb 13, 2026 | Benchmark | Target raised | Buy | $25.00, was $18.00 |
| Feb 13, 2026 | Deutsche Bank | Upgrade | Buy, was Hold | $23.00, was $16.00 |
| Jan 14, 2026 | UBS | Downgrade | Sell, was Neutral | $15.00, was $13.00 |
| Jan 12, 2026 | Wolfe Research | Downgrade | Underperform, was Peer Perform | — |
| Jan 8, 2026 | Piper Sandler | Target raised | Neutral | $20.00, was $14.00 |
| Dec 19, 2025 | Wedbush | Target raised | Outperform | $25.00, was $16.00 |
| Dec 18, 2025 | Baird | Upgrade | Outperform, was Neutral | $25.00, was $14.00 |
| Dec 12, 2025 | Goldman Sachs | Target raised | Neutral | $16.00, was $13.00 |
| Dec 12, 2025 | Needham | Target raised | Buy | $23.00, was $14.00 |
| Dec 8, 2025 | Morgan Stanley | Downgrade | Underweight, was Equal-Weight | $12.00 |
| Nov 17, 2025 | Stifel | Target raised | Buy | $17.00, was $16.00 |
| Nov 14, 2025 | Tigress Financial | Target raised | Buy | $25.00, was $21.00 |
Show the data
| Quarter | Estimate | Reported | Surprise |
|---|---|---|---|
| Dec ’25 | −$0.79 | −$0.66 | +16.5% |
| Mar ’26 | −$0.72 | −$0.33 | +54.2% |
| Jun ’26 | −$0.78 | −$0.63 | +19.2% |
| Sep ’26 | −$0.73 | −$0.63 | +13.7% |
The day after each of these reports the stock moved +20.1% (Dec 2025, beat); −6.5% (Mar 2026, beat); −6.8% (Jun 2026, beat); +4.2% (Sep 2026, beat).
For the quarter ending Dec 2026, analysts expect an adjusted loss of $0.67 a share, against a loss of $0.66 a year earlier, and revenue of $2.5B, up 96% on a year earlier. For the fiscal year ending Dec 2027, they expect an adjusted loss of $2.33 a share, and revenue of $11.6B, up 51% on the year before's estimate.
Adjusted. Dec 2025: a loss of $0.66; range −$0.71 to −$0.51; 12 analysts
Dec 2025: $1.3B; range $2.0B to $2.7B; 19 analysts
Adjusted. The year to Dec 2026: a loss of $2.31 expected, with a quarter far from its estimate; range −$2.74 to −$1.86; 14 analysts
The year to Dec 2026: $7.7B expected; range $8.9B to $13.1B; 23 analysts
Show the data
| Period | Figure | Expected | Low to high | Analysts | A year earlier | Change |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Quarter ending Dec 2026 | EPS (adjusted) | −$0.67 | −$0.71 to −$0.51 | 12 | −$0.66 (Dec 2025) | — |
| Quarter ending Dec 2026 | Revenue | $2.5B | $2.0B to $2.7B | 19 | $1.3B (Dec 2025) | +96% |
| Quarter ending Mar 2027 | EPS (adjusted) | −$0.63 | −$0.90 to −$0.40 | 9 | −$0.33 (Mar 2026) | — |
| Quarter ending Mar 2027 | Revenue | $2.5B | $1.3B to $3.0B | 12 | $1.4B (Mar 2026) | +82% |
| Year ending Dec 2026 | EPS (adjusted) | −$2.31 | −$2.76 to −$2.00 | 14 | — | — |
| Year ending Dec 2026 | Revenue | $7.7B | $7.2B to $7.9B | 23 | $5.4B (year to Dec 2025) | +43% |
| Year ending Dec 2027 | EPS (adjusted) | −$2.33 | −$2.74 to −$1.86 | 14 | −$2.31 (expected, year to Dec 2026) | — |
| Year ending Dec 2027 | Revenue | $11.6B | $8.9B to $13.1B | 23 | $7.7B (expected, year to Dec 2026) | +51% |
Targets, ratings and earnings estimates: Yahoo Finance. Rating and target changes: Yahoo Finance's list of upgrades and downgrades. The average target on each day is the average of every listed firm's latest target set in the 180 days before it, so it counts fewer analysts than the average target above, and the band is the middle half of those targets (a quarter of the firms are above it, a quarter below); a target set before a stock split is divided by the split. Expected figures: the average of the analysts' estimates (Yahoo Finance). Their EPS is adjusted, as analysts estimate it, so it is set against the adjusted EPS Yahoo reports for the same quarters, not the GAAP EPS of the growth and valuation sections; revenue against the SEC filings. No change is given against a quarter whose reported EPS was more than 50% off its own estimate (often a one-off gain or charge), nor against a year that counts one. Each estimate is pinned to its fiscal period by the report date or the period's end, and one that cannot be is left out.
Where the cash goes
Capex of $1.6B exceeds operating cash flow of −$2.6B, leaving free cash flow of −$4.2B. The gap has to be covered with cash on hand or borrowing.
Show the data
| Line | Amount |
|---|---|
| Op. cash flow | −$2.6B |
| Capex | −$1.6B |
| Free cash flow | −$4.2B |
| Dividends | — |
| Buybacks | — |
| Cash retained | −$4.2B |
Free cash flow is negative, so the company is burning cash.
No dividend today; cash goes to growth and share buybacks.
Free cash flow: operating cash flow minus capital spending on property, plant and equipment, from SEC filings.
Financial health
Current ratio 2.3, no pressure to repay short-term debt; debt-to-equity 1.0, debt is moderate.
Assets that can be turned into cash soon are 2.3x what is owed within a year. 1.5 or higher is comfortable; below 1 needs watching.
For every $1 of shareholder funds, there is $1.0 of debt (leases not counted). The higher the number, the more pressure when the economy weakens.
Cash and short-term investments of $6.1B against debt of $4.4B. Lease obligations of $752M are not counted: they are rent owed, not money borrowed.
Latest fiscal year balance sheet. Source: Yahoo Finance.
Who holds it
1 portfolio Hunch tracks holds RIVN. It is 100.0% of Amazon Com's portfolio (62.7% as filed).
RIVN's weight in each portfolio is its target weight in the copy Hunch follows: the stocks of the latest filing that the app can trade, their weights scaled up to add to 100%. “As filed” is its weight in the filing itself: a fund’s latest 13F, or a member of Congress’s holdings from the last annual report and the trades disclosed since, each at the low end of its range. Returns are backtests based on public filings, not actual trading results. Photo credits
What did the funds Hunch tracks do?
Of the 83 funds whose 13F filings Hunch reads, 11 held RIVN at the end of their latest quarter (for most, Q3 2026). Over that quarter 5 added shares, 5 cut and 1 held the same. The largest of them is Amazon Com, 158.36M shares worth $2.4B at Sep 30, 2026.
Over their latest quarter
Over their latest quarter
Show every fund
| Fund | Quarter | Shares | Value | Change in shares | Change | Filed |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Amazon Com | Q3 2026 | 158.36M | $2.4B | 0 | 0.0% | Nov 3, 2026 |
| Baillie Gifford & | Q3 2026 | 41.76M | $624M | −1.45M | −3.4% | Nov 9, 2026 |
| Norges Bank | Q2 2026 vs Q4 2025 | 11.62M | $202M | +438,892 | +3.9% | Aug 12, 2026 |
| Soma Equity Partners | Q2 2026 | 5.47M | $94.9M | −240,110 | −4.2% | Aug 14, 2026 |
| Renaissance Technologies | Q3 2026 | 3.18M | $47.6M | −4.42M | −58% | Nov 12, 2026 |
| Swiss National Bank | Q3 2026 | 2.57M | $38.3M | +297,400 | +13% | Nov 12, 2026 |
| Tudor Investment Corp Et Al | Q2 2026 | 464,476 | $8.1M | −679,434 | −59% | Aug 14, 2026 |
| Nomura Holdings | Q2 2026 | 194,769 | $3.4M | +18,530 | +11% | Aug 14, 2026 |
| Korea Investment | Q2 2026 | 79,425 | $1.4M | −473,069 | −86% | Aug 12, 2026 |
| National Pension Service | Q3 2026 | 74,066 | $1.1M | +28,509 | +63% | Nov 12, 2026 |
| Mirae Asset Global Investments | Q3 2026 | 21,910 | $327K | +3,193 | +17% | Nov 3, 2026 |
From the 13F filings of the 83 funds Hunch tracks, not of every institution: each fund's shares of RIVN at its latest quarter end against the quarter before, as filed (long positions only, options left out), the quarter before put on the latest quarter's share count across a split. A fund files 45 days after its quarter ends, so some have a newer quarter than others. Value is at the quarter end. Norges Bank filed its 13F for Q1 2026 confidentially, with no holdings made public, so its row compares Q2 2026 with Q4 2025.
Are insiders buying or selling?
Officers and directors bought $251K and sold $6.7M of RIVN on the open market in the 12 months to Nov 12, 2026. 99% of the sales were made under 10b5-1 plans, set up in advance. The largest was Robert J Scaringe (Chief Executive Officer; director), who sold $3.9M in 12 sales.
26 sales
1 purchase
Share of the sales' value
Show every trade
| Date | Insider | Role | Trade | Shares | Price | Value | Filed |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 1, 2026 | Michael John Callahan | Chief Administrative Officer | Sale (10b5-1 plan) | 15,000 | $15.00 | $225K | Oct 2, 2026 |
| Sep 11, 2026 | Michael John Callahan | Chief Administrative Officer | Sale (10b5-1 plan) | 15,000 | $16.29 | $244K | Sep 16, 2026 |
| Aug 20, 2026 | Claire McDonough | Chief Financial Officer | Sale (10b5-1 plan) | 8,023 | $16.00 | $128K | Aug 21, 2026 |
| Aug 18, 2026 | Claire McDonough | Chief Financial Officer | Sale (10b5-1 plan) | 13,144 | $14.50 | $191K | Aug 18, 2026 |
| Jul 6, 2026 | Karen Boone | Director | Sale (10b5-1 plan) | 20,000 | $20.00 | $400K | Jul 8, 2026 |
| Jun 3, 2026 | Claire McDonough | Chief Financial Officer | Sale (10b5-1 plan) | 8,022 | $18.00 | $144K | Jun 5, 2026 |
| May 29, 2026 | Claire McDonough | Chief Financial Officer | Sale (10b5-1 plan) | 8,023 | $16.00 | $128K | Jun 2, 2026 |
| May 28, 2026 | Robert J Scaringe | Chief Executive Officer; director | Sale (10b5-1 plan) | 34,818 | $15.00 | $522K | May 29, 2026 |
| May 21, 2026 | Claire McDonough | Chief Financial Officer | Sale (10b5-1 plan) | 7,600 | $14.00 | $106K | May 22, 2026 |
| May 18, 2026 | Claire McDonough | Chief Financial Officer | Sale (10b5-1 plan) | 5,544 | $13.43 | $74K | May 19, 2026 |
| May 15, 2026 | Aidan N. Gomez | Director | Buy | 18,000 | $13.97 | $251K | May 19, 2026 |
| Apr 22, 2026 | Claire McDonough | Chief Financial Officer | Sale (10b5-1 plan) | 10,245 | $18.00 | $184K | Apr 24, 2026 |
| Apr 14, 2026 | Robert J Scaringe | Chief Executive Officer; director | Sale (10b5-1 plan) | 21,446 | $16.17 | $347K | Apr 16, 2026 |
| Mar 31, 2026 | Robert J Scaringe | Chief Executive Officer; director | Sale (10b5-1 plan) | 20,264 | $15.00 | $304K | Apr 2, 2026 |
| Mar 17, 2026 | Robert J Scaringe | Chief Executive Officer; director | Sale (10b5-1 plan) | 17,450 | $15.60 | $272K | Mar 19, 2026 |
| Mar 3, 2026 | Robert J Scaringe | Chief Executive Officer; director | Sale (10b5-1 plan) | 17,450 | $15.00 | $262K | Mar 5, 2026 |
| Feb 18, 2026 | Claire McDonough | Chief Financial Officer | Sale (10b5-1 plan) | 27,133 | $16.80 | $456K | Feb 18, 2026 |
| Feb 18, 2026 | Robert J Scaringe | Chief Executive Officer; director | Sale (10b5-1 plan) | 34,900 | $16.80 | $586K | Feb 18, 2026 |
| Jan 20, 2026 | Robert J Scaringe | Chief Executive Officer; director | Sale (10b5-1 plan) | 17,450 | $16.03 | $280K | Jan 22, 2026 |
| Jan 6, 2026 | Robert J Scaringe | Chief Executive Officer; director | Sale (10b5-1 plan) | 17,350 | $19.54 | $339K | Jan 8, 2026 |
| Jan 6, 2026 | Robert J Scaringe | Chief Executive Officer; director | Sale (10b5-1 plan) | 100 | $20.09 | $2,009 | Jan 8, 2026 |
| Dec 23, 2025 | Robert J Scaringe | Chief Executive Officer; director | Sale (10b5-1 plan) | 17,450 | $21.43 | $374K | Dec 29, 2025 |
| Dec 15, 2025 | Peter Krawiec | Director | Sale | 3,655 | $19.45 | $71K | Dec 17, 2025 |
| Dec 9, 2025 | Robert J Scaringe | Chief Executive Officer; director | Sale (10b5-1 plan) | 17,450 | $17.53 | $306K | Dec 11, 2025 |
| Dec 4, 2025 | Claire McDonough | Chief Financial Officer | Sale (10b5-1 plan) | 8,039 | $18.00 | $145K | Dec 4, 2025 |
| Dec 2, 2025 | Claire McDonough | Chief Financial Officer | Sale (10b5-1 plan) | 21,210 | $17.14 | $363K | Dec 4, 2025 |
| Nov 25, 2025 | Robert J Scaringe | Chief Executive Officer; director | Sale (10b5-1 plan) | 17,450 | $15.11 | $264K | Nov 28, 2025 |
From the Form 4s filed with the SEC about Rivian Automotive, Inc. (71 in the 12 months): purchases (code P) and sales (code S) on the open market by its officers and directors, at the price each filing gives (often an average of the day's trades). A sale is a 10b5-1 sale when its filing says it was made under such a plan, set up in advance. Not counted: 58 other transactions (grants, shares withheld for tax and other transfers). Also not counted: 1 trade by holders of more than 10% who are neither officers nor directors.