Tesla, Inc.

How has the stock done?

Change in closing price from the first day shown, or with Price the closing price itself. Prices: Yahoo Finance, to Nov 12, 2026. Dashed lines: the days the company released earnings (its SEC 8-K filings); EPS estimates: Yahoo Finance. The stock's move after a release runs from the last close before its day to the close the day after (or five days after), so a release before the open counts like one after the close.

Is the business growing?

In the fiscal year to Dec 2025, Automotive sales was 69% and Services and other was 13% of revenue; Automotive sales fell from 81% in the fiscal year to Dec 2023.

In the fiscal year to Dec 2025, United States was 50% and Other international was 28% of revenue; United States rose from 47% in the fiscal year to Dec 2023; China was 22%, as in the fiscal year to Dec 2023.

Quarters: Tesla, Inc.'s SEC filings, named by the month they end. Fiscal years: Tesla, Inc.'s annual reports to the SEC.

How it makes money

Of every $100 in revenue, $4.0 ends up as net income. Net margin fell from 15.4% to 4.0% over the past 3 years.

Circled: Dec 2023 (net 31.5%, operating 8.2%). Net margin is usually less than 1 point above operating margin; in that quarter something below operating income (a tax charge or benefit, a gain or loss on investments, a write-down) moved it, not the business itself.

Each margin is that line of the income statement divided by revenue. Fiscal year: Tesla, Inc.'s annual reports to the SEC; quarters: SEC filings.

Is inventory piling up?

Tesla held $14.1B of inventory at the end of Sep 2026, up 14.8% from a year earlier, while its revenue for the quarter fell 0.2% against the same quarter a year earlier. Inventory outpaced sales by 15.0 points. At the last four quarters' cost of sales, the inventory would last 62 days, against 56 a year earlier.

From Tesla, Inc.'s SEC filings: inventory at each quarter end, against the same quarter end a year earlier, and the quarter's revenue against the same quarter a year earlier. Inventory days: inventory over the cost of sales of the four quarters to that date, times 365. Gross margin: gross profit over revenue, by quarter.

Customers and suppliers

In its latest annual report Tesla buys from Samsung, Panasonic, CATL.

Their suppliers

Qualcomm QCOMto Samsung

Lam Research LRCXto Samsung

NXP Semiconductors NXPIto Samsung

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Suppliers

CATL CYATY

Panasonic 6752.T

Samsung 005930.KS

 

TSLATesla

Customers

Space Exploration Technologies SPCX

Their customers

Carnival CCLfrom Space Exploration Technologies

EchoStar SATSfrom Space Exploration Technologies

Anthropic ANTfrom Space Exploration Technologies

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Partners

xAITesla invested in it · Series E Preferred Stock investmentApproximately $2 billion investment agreed in January 2026

Changes since the previous annual report (10-K filed Jan 30, 2025)

SamsungNamed for the first time, as a supplier

PPanasonic Corporation of North AmericaNo longer named (was a supplier and a tenant)

SSANYONo longer named (was a supplier)

PanasonicNo longer a partner, still a supplier

Named in other companies’ filings

Space Exploration Technologies SPCXco-develops with it · Terafab chip design and manufacturing collaboration

Only the companies Tesla names in its 10-K filed Jan 29, 2026 (SEC). Named in other companies' filings: those whose own latest annual report or an 8-K since names Tesla. The supply chain joins the latest annual reports of the companies on it and the 8-Ks they filed since: a link shows when either side's report names the other, so it grows as more reports are read. Hover a name for the filing's own words.

Is it expensive?

P/E of 437x; earnings are still growing. No peers to compare against.

No peers with a P/E to compare against.

At 437× trailing earnings TSLA is above most of its five-year range; the five-year median is 107×.

Closing price over diluted earnings per share of the last four reported quarters, as known on each day (a quarter counts 35 days after it ends). From SEC filings; earnings per share adjusted for splits.

What analysts expect

The average analyst price target is $412, 4% above the current price; 48% of 44 analysts rate it a buy; earnings beat estimates in 3 of the last 4 quarters.

Buy or Strong Buy: 21 analysts (48%). Sell or Strong Sell: 2.

Over the past year the average of the analysts' latest price targets went from $397.87 to $411.95 (+4%), while TSLA went from $401.99 to $397.45 (−1%). In the past three months targets were raised 11 times and cut once. 5 upgrades and 1 downgrade over the year; the latest: Barclays moved it to Overweight from Equal-Weight on Oct 26, 2026.

The day after each of these reports the stock moved −3.3% (Dec 2025, beat); −3.3% (Mar 2026, beat); −15.6% (Jun 2026, missed); +0.2% (Sep 2026, beat).

For the quarter ending Dec 2026 (Tesla reports on Jan 27, 2027), analysts expect adjusted earnings of $0.50 a share, 0.02% more than the $0.50 of a year earlier, and revenue of $29.3B, up 18% on a year earlier. For the fiscal year ending Dec 2027, they expect revenue of $122.4B, up 13% on the year before's estimate.

Targets, ratings and earnings estimates: Yahoo Finance. Rating and target changes: Yahoo Finance's list of upgrades and downgrades. The average target on each day is the average of every listed firm's latest target set in the 180 days before it, so it counts fewer analysts than the average target above, and the band is the middle half of those targets (a quarter of the firms are above it, a quarter below); a target set before a stock split is divided by the split. Expected figures: the average of the analysts' estimates (Yahoo Finance). Their EPS is adjusted, as analysts estimate it, so it is set against the adjusted EPS Yahoo reports for the same quarters, not the GAAP EPS of the growth and valuation sections; revenue against the SEC filings. No change is given against a quarter whose reported EPS was more than 50% off its own estimate (often a one-off gain or charge), nor against a year that counts one. Each estimate is pinned to its fiscal period by the report date or the period's end, and one that cannot be is left out.

Where the cash goes

Generated $3.3B in free cash flow over the year, with no dividends and no buybacks. All of the cash stays in the company.

Tesla had 3.54B diluted shares in the quarter ended Sep 2026, 0.4% more than a year earlier, and 0.5% more each year on average since Sep 2022. Over the last four quarters its earnings per share fell 37.2% and its net income fell 36.7%: more shares took about 1 point off.

Free cash flow: operating cash flow minus capital spending on property, plant and equipment, from SEC filings. Shares: each quarter's diluted weighted average as filed with the SEC, since the stock's listing and its latest split.

Financial health

Current ratio 2.2, no pressure to repay short-term debt; debt-to-equity 0.1, debt is very low and the balance sheet is solid.

Latest fiscal year balance sheet. Source: Yahoo Finance.

Who holds it

3 portfolios Hunch tracks hold TSLA: 3 funds. It is 24.8% of Prime Capital Management's portfolio (21.6% as filed).

• FundPrime Capital ManagementAsset managerTSLA is 25% of this portfolio22% as filed+50.1%2-year backtest
• FundUNICOM SystemsUNICOM Systems' own stock investmentsTSLA is 20% of this portfolio12% as filed-7.3%1-year backtest
• FundStony Point CapitalHedge fundTSLA is 9% of this portfolio5% as filed+49.4%2-year backtest

TSLA's weight in each portfolio is its target weight in the copy Hunch follows: the stocks of the latest filing that the app can trade, their weights scaled up to add to 100%. “As filed” is its weight in the filing itself: a fund’s latest 13F, or a member of Congress’s holdings from the last annual report and the trades disclosed since, each at the low end of its range. Returns are backtests based on public filings, not actual trading results. Photo credits

What did the funds Hunch tracks do?

Of the 83 funds whose 13F filings Hunch reads, 24 held TSLA at the end of their latest quarter (for most, Q2 2026). Over that quarter 14 added shares, 7 cut, 1 bought new, 2 sold all and 2 held the same. The largest of them is Norges Bank, 38.81M shares worth $16.3B at Jun 30, 2026, 1.9% more than at Dec 31, 2025.

From the 13F filings of the 83 funds Hunch tracks, not of every institution: each fund's shares of TSLA at its latest quarter end against the quarter before, as filed (long positions only, options left out), the quarter before put on the latest quarter's share count across a split. A fund files 45 days after its quarter ends, so some have a newer quarter than others. Value is at the quarter end. Norges Bank filed its 13F for Q1 2026 confidentially, with no holdings made public, so its row compares Q2 2026 with Q4 2025.

Are insiders buying or selling?

Officers and directors sold $82.3M of TSLA on the open market in the 12 months to Nov 12, 2026; none bought. 69% of the sales were made under 10b5-1 plans, set up in advance. The largest was Kathleen Wilson-Thompson (Director), who sold $30.0M in 38 sales.

From the Form 4s filed with the SEC about Tesla, Inc. (15 in the 12 months): purchases (code P) and sales (code S) on the open market by its officers and directors, at the price each filing gives (often an average of the day's trades). A sale is a 10b5-1 sale when its filing says it was made under such a plan, set up in advance. Not counted: 20 other transactions (option exercises, shares withheld for tax, shares sold to pay tax, gifts and other transfers).

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