Applied Optoelectronics, Inc.

How has the stock done?

Change in closing price from the first day shown, or with Price the closing price itself. Prices: Yahoo Finance, to Nov 12, 2026. Dashed lines: the days the company released earnings (its SEC 8-K filings); EPS estimates: Yahoo Finance. The stock's move after a release runs from the last close before its day to the close the day after (or five days after), so a release before the open counts like one after the close.

Is the business growing?

In the fiscal year to Dec 2025, CATV was 54% and Data Center was 43% of revenue; CATV rose from 28% in the fiscal year to Dec 2023.

In the fiscal year to Dec 2025, China was 58% and Taiwan was 38% of revenue; China rose from 20% in the fiscal year to Dec 2023.

Quarters: Applied Optoelectronics, Inc.'s SEC filings, named by the month they end. Fiscal years: Applied Optoelectronics, Inc.'s annual reports to the SEC.

How it makes money

The company loses $8.4 for every $100 of revenue. Operating expenses exceed all of gross profit.

Circled: Dec 2023 (net −22.9%, operating −7.5%), Dec 2024 (net −119.4%, operating −6.5%). Net margin is usually about 1 point below operating margin; in those quarters something below operating income (a tax charge or benefit, a gain or loss on investments, a write-down) moved it, not the business itself.

Each margin is that line of the income statement divided by revenue. Fiscal year: Applied Optoelectronics, Inc.'s annual reports to the SEC; quarters: SEC filings.

Customers and suppliers

In its latest annual report Applied Optoelectronics buys from San Ho Enterprise, International Games System, Coleman and 1 more; sells to Digicomm, Microsoft, ATX Networks and 2 more. Since then its 8-K filings name Ningbo Yiduofu Industrial as a supplier (Sep 15, 2026), Hightower Phase II Owner as a supplier (Sep 1, 2026), Hightower Phase I Owner as a supplier (Sep 1, 2026) and 3 more.

Suppliers

B

Blue Ridge Commerce Center West

C

Coleman

H

Hightower Phase I Owner

H

Hightower Phase II Owner

International Games System

L

LCC3 Solution

N

Ningbo Yiduofu Industrial

S

San Ho Enterprise

S

SRPF D/Kirby Industrial

+1 more

 

AAOIApplied Optoelectronics

Customers

D

Digicomm 53%

Microsoft MSFT 29%

A

ATX Networks 16%

Oracle ORCL 12%

Amazon AMZN

Their customers

Celsius Holdings CELHfrom Microsoft, Amazon

Galaxy Digital GLXYfrom Microsoft, Amazon

GameStop GMEfrom Microsoft

Innodata INODfrom Oracle, Microsoft +1

Vertiv Holdings VRTfrom Oracle

Zoom Communications ZMfrom Oracle, Microsoft +1

Aurora Innovation AURfrom Amazon

Cerebras Systems CBRSfrom Amazon

Show 8

Applied Optoelectronics's 10-Q for the quarter to Sep 2026 gives three customers' shares of its revenue: Customer 1 (41%), Customer 2 (28%) and Customer 3 (23%). Separately, it gives a group of customers: Top Ten Customers (99%).

From Applied Optoelectronics, Inc.'s 10-Q and 10-K filings (XBRL): each customer whose share of revenue a filing tags, under the filing's own label, so “Customer A” in one filing can be another company in the next; a later filing's figures for a period replace an earlier one's. A dash is a group of customers the filing gives (a government's agencies, the largest customers together, all the others): it can include the customers beside it, so the shares need not add up. Rings are fiscal years: a 10-K gives the year, not its fourth quarter.

Partners

Amazon AMZNinvested in Applied Optoelectronics · Holds warrant to purchase common stock

Changes since the previous annual report (10-K filed Feb 28, 2025)

BBlue Ridge Commerce Center WestNamed for the first time, as a supplierApproximately 153,928 rentable square feet under February 23, 2026 lease

CColemanNamed for the first time, as a supplierApproximately 209,665 square feet under September 19, 2025 lease

International Games SystemNamed for the first time, as a supplier

Amazon AMZNNamed for the first time, as a customer and a partner$4 billion purchase threshold over 10 years for remaining warrant vesting

CChyi Ding TechnologiesNo longer named (was a supplier)

ZZhejiang Xinyu Construction GroupNo longer named (was a supplier)

Meta Platforms METANo longer named (was a customer)

DDigicommCustomer, share of revenue35.1% → 53.1%

Microsoft MSFTCustomer, share of revenue43.7% → 28.8%

Only the companies Applied Optoelectronics names in its 10-K filed Feb 26, 2026 (SEC) and in the 8-Ks it filed since, each with its date. The supply chain joins the latest annual reports of the companies on it and the 8-Ks they filed since: a link shows when either side's report names the other, so it grows as more reports are read. Hover a name for the filing's own words.

Is it expensive?

Currently unprofitable, so P/E does not apply, so we look at price-to-sales instead: 6.4x, below the peer median of 6.9x. Revenue is up 127% from a year ago.

Below the peer median of 6.9x. The market pays less per $1 of revenue than for peers.

Applied Optoelectronics, Inc. is currently unprofitable, so P/E does not apply. We use price-to-sales instead: market cap as a multiple of revenue.

What analysts expect

The average analyst price target is $109, 106% above the current price; 67% of 6 analysts rate it a buy; earnings beat estimates in 3 of the last 4 quarters.

Buy or Strong Buy: 4 analysts (67%). Sell or Strong Sell: 0.

Over the past year the average of the analysts' latest price targets went from $26.50 to $86.67 (+227%), while AAOI went from $20.91 to $52.85 (+153%). In the past three months targets were cut 5 times and never raised. 1 upgrade and no downgrades over the year; the latest: B. Riley Securities moved it to Neutral from Sell on Feb 27, 2026.

The day after each of these reports the stock moved +44.9% (Dec 2025, beat); −16.6% (Mar 2026, missed); +5.5% (Jun 2026, beat); −15.4% (Sep 2026, beat).

For the quarter ending Dec 2026, analysts expect adjusted earnings of $0.51 a share, and revenue of $427M, up 218% on a year earlier. For the fiscal year ending Dec 2027, they expect adjusted earnings of $3.82 a share, and revenue of $2.4B, up 135% on the year before's estimate.

Targets, ratings and earnings estimates: Yahoo Finance. Rating and target changes: Yahoo Finance's list of upgrades and downgrades. The average target on each day is the average of every listed firm's latest target set in the 180 days before it, so it counts fewer analysts than the average target above, and the band is the middle half of those targets (a quarter of the firms are above it, a quarter below); a target set before a stock split is divided by the split. Expected figures: the average of the analysts' estimates (Yahoo Finance). Their EPS is adjusted, as analysts estimate it, so it is set against the adjusted EPS Yahoo reports for the same quarters, not the GAAP EPS of the growth and valuation sections; revenue against the SEC filings. No change is given against a quarter whose reported EPS was more than 50% off its own estimate (often a one-off gain or charge), nor against a year that counts one. Each estimate is pinned to its fiscal period by the report date or the period's end, and one that cannot be is left out.

Where the cash goes

Capex of $778M exceeds operating cash flow of −$106M, leaving free cash flow of −$884M. The gap has to be covered with cash on hand or borrowing.

Free cash flow: operating cash flow minus capital spending. Last 4 quarters: Yahoo Finance, buybacks from SEC filings where they have the quarter.

Financial health

Current ratio 2.6, no pressure to repay short-term debt; debt-to-equity 0.3, debt is very low and the balance sheet is solid.

Latest fiscal year balance sheet. Source: Yahoo Finance.

Who holds it

In the filings of 7 funds whose copy leaves AAOI out (on the exchange, not in the app yet): UNICOM Systems, Mirae Asset Global Investments, Polen Capital Management, Canada Pension Plan Investment Board, Swiss National Bank, Maverick Capital and 1 more.

What did the funds Hunch tracks do?

Of the 83 funds whose 13F filings Hunch reads, 9 held AAOI at the end of their latest quarter (for most, Q2 2026). Over that quarter 2 added shares, 2 cut, 4 bought new, 1 sold all and 1 held the same. The largest of them is Canada Pension Plan Investment Board, 188,500 shares worth $27.9M at Jun 30, 2026.

From the 13F filings of the 83 funds Hunch tracks, not of every institution: each fund's shares of AAOI at its latest quarter end against the quarter before, as filed (long positions only, options left out), the quarter before put on the latest quarter's share count across a split. A fund files 45 days after its quarter ends, so some have a newer quarter than others. Value is at the quarter end. Norges Bank filed its 13F for Q1 2026 confidentially, with no holdings made public, so its row compares Q2 2026 with Q4 2025.

Are insiders buying or selling?

Officers and directors sold $126M of AAOI on the open market in the 12 months to Nov 10, 2026; none bought. 18% of the sales were made under 10b5-1 plans, set up in advance. The largest was Hung-Lun (Fred) Chang (*** See Remarks), who sold $26.4M in 6 sales.

From the Form 4s filed with the SEC about Applied Optoelectronics, Inc. (79 in the 12 months): purchases (code P) and sales (code S) on the open market by its officers and directors, at the price each filing gives (often an average of the day's trades). A sale is a 10b5-1 sale when its filing says it was made under such a plan, set up in advance. Not counted: 114 other transactions (grants, shares withheld for tax, gifts and other transfers).