United Parcel Service, Inc.

How has the stock done?

Change in closing price from the first day shown, or with Price the closing price itself. Prices: Yahoo Finance, to Nov 12, 2026. Dashed lines: the days the company released earnings (its SEC 8-K filings); EPS estimates: Yahoo Finance. The stock's move after a release runs from the last close before its day to the close the day after (or five days after), so a release before the open counts like one after the close.

Is the business growing?

In the fiscal year to Dec 2025, United States was 76% and Outside the United States was 24% of revenue; Outside the United States rose from 21% in the fiscal year to Dec 2023.

Quarters: United Parcel Service, Inc.'s SEC filings, named by the month they end. Fiscal years: United Parcel Service, Inc.'s annual reports to the SEC.

How it makes money

Of every $100 in revenue, $6.3 ends up as net income. Net margin fell from 11.5% to 6.3% over the past 3 years.

Each margin is that line of the income statement divided by revenue. Fiscal year: United Parcel Service, Inc.'s annual reports to the SEC.

Customers and suppliers

In its latest annual report United Parcel Service sells to Amazon; it names no suppliers.

 

UPSUnited Parcel Service

Customers

Amazon AMZN 11%

Their customers

Aurora Innovation AURfrom Amazon

Celsius Holdings CELHfrom Amazon

Cerebras Systems CBRSfrom Amazon

Show 3

United Parcel Service's 10-K for the year to Dec 2025 gives one customer's share of its revenue: Amazon.com Inc. (10.6%).

From United Parcel Service, Inc.'s 10-Q and 10-K filings (XBRL): each customer whose share of revenue a filing tags, under the filing's own label, so “Customer A” in one filing can be another company in the next; a later filing's figures for a period replace an earlier one's.

Changes since the previous annual report (10-K filed Feb 18, 2025)

Boeing BANo longer named (was a supplier)Amazon AMZNCustomer, share of revenue11.8% → 10.6%

Only the companies United Parcel Service names in its 10-K filed Feb 17, 2026 (SEC). The supply chain joins the latest annual reports of the companies on it and the 8-Ks they filed since: a link shows when either side's report names the other, so it grows as more reports are read. Hover a name for the filing's own words.

Is it expensive?

P/E of 21.2x, in line with the peer median of 24.9x, with earnings still growing.

In line with the peer median of 24.9x.

At 21.2× trailing earnings UPS is above most of its five-year range; the five-year median is 15.5×.

Closing price over diluted earnings per share of the last four reported quarters, as known on each day (a quarter counts 35 days after it ends). From SEC filings; earnings per share adjusted for splits.

What analysts expect

The average analyst price target is $115, 5% above the current price; 48% of 29 analysts rate it a buy; earnings beat estimates in all of the last 4 quarters.

Buy or Strong Buy: 14 analysts (48%). Sell or Strong Sell: 3.

Over the past year the average of the analysts' latest price targets went from $98.43 to $114.80 (+17%), while UPS went from $95.97 to $110.38 (+15%). In the past three months targets were raised 8 times and cut 4 times. No upgrades and 1 downgrade over the year; the latest: Wolfe Research moved it to Peer Perform from Outperform on Jan 8, 2026.

The day after each of these reports the stock moved −3.1% (Dec 2025, beat); −1.5% (Mar 2026, beat); −7.4% (Jun 2026, beat); +5.3% (Sep 2026, beat).

For the quarter ending Dec 2026 (United Parcel Service reports on Jan 26, 2027), analysts expect adjusted earnings of $2.77 a share, 16% more than the $2.38 of a year earlier, and revenue of $25.7B, up 5% on a year earlier. For the fiscal year ending Dec 2027, they expect adjusted earnings of $8.10 a share, 11% more than the year before's estimate of $7.28.

Targets, ratings and earnings estimates: Yahoo Finance. Rating and target changes: Yahoo Finance's list of upgrades and downgrades. The average target on each day is the average of every listed firm's latest target set in the 180 days before it, so it counts fewer analysts than the average target above, and the band is the middle half of those targets (a quarter of the firms are above it, a quarter below); a target set before a stock split is divided by the split. Expected figures: the average of the analysts' estimates (Yahoo Finance). Their EPS is adjusted, as analysts estimate it, so it is set against the adjusted EPS Yahoo reports for the same quarters, not the GAAP EPS of the growth and valuation sections; revenue against the SEC filings. No change is given against a quarter whose reported EPS was more than 50% off its own estimate (often a one-off gain or charge), nor against a year that counts one. Each estimate is pinned to its fiscal period by the report date or the period's end, and one that cannot be is left out.

Where the cash goes

Generated $6.4B in free cash flow over the year, of which $5.5B went back to shareholders (dividends plus buybacks), leaving $900M in the company.

United Parcel Service had 852M diluted shares in the quarter ended Sep 2026, 0.5% more than a year earlier, and 0.3% fewer each year on average since Jun 2020. Over the last four quarters its earnings per share fell 19.6% and its net income fell 19.6%: fewer shares added about 0 points.

Free cash flow: operating cash flow minus capital spending on property, plant and equipment, from SEC filings, for the last 4 quarters and by quarter. Shares: each quarter's diluted weighted average as filed with the SEC, since the stock's listing and its latest split.

Financial health

Current ratio 1.2, short-term debt is manageable; debt-to-equity 1.5, debt is moderate.

Latest fiscal year balance sheet. Source: Yahoo Finance.

What did the funds Hunch tracks do?

Of the 83 funds whose 13F filings Hunch reads, 11 held UPS at the end of their latest quarter (for most, Q2 2026). Over that quarter 4 added shares, 7 cut and 2 sold all. The largest of them is Norges Bank, 8.02M shares worth $862M at Jun 30, 2026, 11.9% fewer than at Dec 31, 2025.

From the 13F filings of the 83 funds Hunch tracks, not of every institution: each fund's shares of UPS at its latest quarter end against the quarter before, as filed (long positions only, options left out), the quarter before put on the latest quarter's share count across a split. A fund files 45 days after its quarter ends, so some have a newer quarter than others. Value is at the quarter end. Norges Bank filed its 13F for Q1 2026 confidentially, with no holdings made public, so its row compares Q2 2026 with Q4 2025.