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US stocks' Fed-calendar shock: small caps post -1.6%!

TL;DR

IWM, a fund tracking smaller US companies, returned -1.6% on November 12, the day of the Fed calendar news. That is a same-day comparison, not proof that the announcement caused the decline.

**The Fed changed its calendar, not interest rates**

CNBC describes the October 2027 meeting as “extra time for policy deliberation without a formal vote or post-meeting statement.”

For the annual schedule, CNBC reports “seven voting meetings next year, down from eight in 2026.”

CNBC also reports, “The new calendar shows that the final meeting of the year will now take place in November.”

On the reason for the change, CNBC quotes the chair calling for “strategic deliberations—for thinking anew about big questions, looking out over longer time horizons”.

**A down day is not a verdict on the announcement**

On November 12, the small-company IWM returned -1.6%, the weakest result among the funds shown.

Glossary
ETF
An exchange-traded fund holds a basket of investments and trades like a stock. An index ETF aims to follow a defined market benchmark.
Index funds on November 12
IWM had the weakest session among the funds shown; these daily moves do not isolate the announcement's effect.
Data table
nameretseries_role
那斯達克 100 指數 ETF(QQQ)-0.3%negative
標普 500 指數 ETF(SPY)-0.4%negative
羅素 2000 小型股 ETF(IWM)-1.6%negative

QQQ returned -0.3% that session, losing less than the other funds in the chart.

SPY returned -0.4% during the same session as the announcement.

These price data stop on November 12; DIA's data stop on November 11, so its announcement-day return is unavailable.

Was QQQ's broader multiweek result better or worse than its announcement-day result?

Show answer

-5.5% In the supplied multiweek comparison ending November 12, QQQ returned -5.5%. The broader loss was larger than the announcement-day dip, so the day's result does not describe the whole period.

**The rate backdrop is separate from the meeting schedule**

As of November 10, the long-term stood at 4.98%, providing a market-rate reference separate from the meeting calendar.

The shorter-term Treasury yield stood at 4.73% on November 10.

The averaged 3.88% in October 2026, measuring overnight bank borrowing rather than a stock-market return.

Glossary
Treasury yield
The return implied by the market price of US government debt. It is a market borrowing-rate measure, not the Fed's announced policy setting.
effective federal funds rate
The rate banks actually pay each other for overnight borrowing, summarized across transactions.

These figures reach only November 10 for Treasury yields and October 2026 for the overnight rate, before the announcement and well before the revised meeting calendar.

Risks

  • A single session's move is often noise, not a lasting signal.
  • Markets respond to expectations, not just announcements.
  • Index funds track benchmarks before fees; small gaps are not necessarily news.

Sources

  1. FinMind USStockPrice (QQQ, DIA, IWM, SPY, XLB, XLC, XLE, XLF, XLI, XLK, XLP, XLRE, XLU, XLV, XLY) — data as of 2026-11-11, 2026-11-12; fetched 2026-11-13 00:31–00:32 UTC; License note: FinMind open data; original source TWSE/TPEx or US exchanges