Toll Brothers, Inc.

How has the stock done?

Change in closing price from the first day shown, or with Price the closing price itself. Prices: Yahoo Finance, to Nov 12, 2026. Dashed lines: the days the company released earnings (its SEC 8-K filings); EPS estimates: Yahoo Finance. The stock's move after a release runs from the last close before its day to the close the day after (or five days after), so a release before the open counts like one after the close.

Is the business growing?

In the fiscal year to Oct 2025, Home sales was 99% and Land sales and other was 1% of revenue.

Quarters: Toll Brothers, Inc.'s SEC filings, named by the month they end. Fiscal years: Toll Brothers, Inc.'s annual reports to the SEC.

How it makes money

Of every $100 in revenue, $12.3 ends up as net income. Net margin was roughly flat over the past 3 years.

Each margin is that line of the income statement divided by revenue. Fiscal year: Toll Brothers, Inc.'s annual reports to the SEC; quarters: SEC filings.

Is inventory piling up?

Toll Brothers held $11.6B of homes and land at the end of Jul 2026, up 5.2% from a year earlier, while its revenue for the quarter fell 9.7% against the same quarter a year earlier. Homes and land outpaced sales by 14.9 points. At the last four quarters' cost of sales, the homes and land would last 518 days, against 500 a year earlier.

From Toll Brothers, Inc.'s SEC filings: inventory at each quarter end (homes finished and under construction, and land), against the same quarter end a year earlier, and the quarter's revenue against the same quarter a year earlier. Inventory days: inventory over the cost of sales of the four quarters to that date, times 365. Gross margin: gross profit over revenue, by quarter.

Customers and suppliers

In its latest annual report Toll Brothers buys from Kennedy Wilson.

Suppliers

Kennedy Wilson

 

TTOLToll Brothers

Changes since the previous annual report (10-K filed Dec 20, 2024)

Kennedy WilsonNamed for the first time, as a supplier

Only the companies Toll Brothers names in its 10-K filed Dec 19, 2025 (SEC). The supply chain joins the latest annual reports of the companies on it and the 8-Ks they filed since: a link shows when either side's report names the other, so it grows as more reports are read. Hover a name for the filing's own words.

Is it expensive?

P/E of 11.9x, below the peer median of 15.8x, with earnings still growing.

Priced 25% below the peer median of 15.8x.

At 11.9× trailing earnings TOL is above most of its five-year range; the five-year median is 8.4×.

Closing price over diluted earnings per share of the last four reported quarters, as known on each day (a quarter counts 35 days after it ends). From SEC filings; earnings per share adjusted for splits.

What analysts expect

The average analyst price target is $169, 14% above the current price; 76% of 21 analysts rate it a buy; earnings beat estimates in 3 of the last 4 quarters.

Buy or Strong Buy: 16 analysts (76%). Sell or Strong Sell: 1.

Over the past year the average of the analysts' latest price targets went from $155.80 to $166.70 (+7%), while TOL went from $131.89 to $147.99 (+12%). In the past three months targets were raised 6 times and cut 4 times. 4 upgrades and 1 downgrade over the year; the latest: Citigroup moved it to Buy from Neutral on Jul 10, 2026.

The day after each of these reports the stock moved −4.3% (Oct 2025, missed); −3.7% (Jan 2026, beat); +7.4% (Apr 2026, beat); +2.2% (Jul 2026, beat).

For the quarter ending Oct 2026 (Toll Brothers reports on Dec 8, 2026), analysts expect adjusted earnings of $4.86 a share, 6% more than the $4.58 of a year earlier, and revenue of $3.5B, up 3% on a year earlier. For the fiscal year ending Oct 2027, they expect adjusted earnings of $13.57 a share, 7% more than the year before's estimate of $12.70.

Targets, ratings and earnings estimates: Yahoo Finance. Rating and target changes: Yahoo Finance's list of upgrades and downgrades. The average target on each day is the average of every listed firm's latest target set in the 180 days before it, so it counts fewer analysts than the average target above, and the band is the middle half of those targets (a quarter of the firms are above it, a quarter below); a target set before a stock split is divided by the split. Expected figures: the average of the analysts' estimates (Yahoo Finance). Their EPS is adjusted, as analysts estimate it, so it is set against the adjusted EPS Yahoo reports for the same quarters, not the GAAP EPS of the growth and valuation sections; revenue against the SEC filings. No change is given against a quarter whose reported EPS was more than 50% off its own estimate (often a one-off gain or charge), nor against a year that counts one. Each estimate is pinned to its fiscal period by the report date or the period's end, and one that cannot be is left out.

Where the cash goes

Generated $1.1B in free cash flow over the year, of which $780M went back to shareholders (dividends plus buybacks), leaving $310M in the company.

Toll Brothers had 94M diluted shares in the quarter ended Jul 2026, 4.8% fewer than a year earlier, and 5.6% fewer each year on average since Oct 2021. It spent $682M on buybacks over the last four quarters. Over the last four quarters its earnings per share fell 8.4% and its net income fell 12.9%: fewer shares added about 4 points.

Free cash flow: operating cash flow minus capital spending on property, plant and equipment, from SEC filings, for the last 4 quarters and by quarter. Shares: each quarter's diluted weighted average as filed with the SEC, since the stock's listing and its latest split.

Financial health

Current ratio 4.2, no pressure to repay short-term debt; debt-to-equity 0.3, debt is very low and the balance sheet is solid.

Latest fiscal year balance sheet. Source: Yahoo Finance.

Who holds it

In the filings of 6 funds whose copy leaves TOL out (not traded on the exchange): Wedgewood Partners, Norges Bank, Bridgewater Associates, Swiss National Bank, Canada Pension Plan Investment Board, Mirae Asset Global Investments.

What did the funds Hunch tracks do?

Of the 83 funds whose 13F filings Hunch reads, 9 held TOL at the end of their latest quarter (for most, Q2 2026). Over that quarter 2 added shares, 5 cut, 1 bought new, 1 sold all and 1 held the same. The largest of them is Norges Bank, 1.19M shares worth $196M at Jun 30, 2026, 4.5% fewer than at Dec 31, 2025.

From the 13F filings of the 83 funds Hunch tracks, not of every institution: each fund's shares of TOL at its latest quarter end against the quarter before, as filed (long positions only, options left out), the quarter before put on the latest quarter's share count across a split. A fund files 45 days after its quarter ends, so some have a newer quarter than others. Value is at the quarter end. Norges Bank filed its 13F for Q1 2026 confidentially, with no holdings made public, so its row compares Q2 2026 with Q4 2025.

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