Red Cat Holdings, Inc.

How has the stock done?

Change in closing price from the first day shown, or with Price the closing price itself. Prices: Yahoo Finance, to Nov 12, 2026. Dashed lines: the days the company released earnings (its SEC 8-K filings); EPS estimates: Yahoo Finance. The stock's move after a release runs from the last close before its day to the close the day after (or five days after), so a release before the open counts like one after the close.

Is the business growing?

In the fiscal year to Dec 2025, Product related was 93% and Contract related was 7% of revenue; Product related rose from 77% in the fiscal year to Apr 2024.

Quarters: Red Cat Holdings, Inc.'s SEC filings, named by the month they end. Fiscal years: Red Cat Holdings, Inc.'s annual reports to the SEC.

How it makes money

The company loses $177.0 for every $100 of revenue. Operating expenses exceed all of gross profit.

Beyond ±100% the scale is logarithmic, so that Mar 2025's −1,419% and the quarters near zero both read. Circled: Sep 2024 (net −962.0%, operating −653.2%), Mar 2025 (net −1,418.9%, operating −765.7%). Net margin is usually about 6 points below operating margin; in those quarters something below operating income (a tax charge or benefit, a gain or loss on investments, a write-down) moved it, not the business itself.

Each margin is that line of the income statement divided by revenue. Fiscal year: Red Cat Holdings, Inc.'s annual reports to the SEC; quarters: SEC filings.

Customers and suppliers

In its latest annual report Red Cat Holdings sells to the U.S. government; one customer it does not name accounts for 73% of its revenue; it names no suppliers.

 

RCATRed Cat Holdings

Customers

Unnamed customer 73%

U.S. government 73%

Red Cat Holdings's 10-Q for the quarter to Mar 2026 gives two customers' shares of its revenue: Customer A (56%) and Customer B (19%).

From Red Cat Holdings, Inc.'s 10-Q and 10-K filings (XBRL): each customer whose share of revenue a filing tags, under the filing's own label, so “Customer A” in one filing can be another company in the next; a later filing's figures for a period replace an earlier one's. Rings are fiscal years: a 10-K gives the year, not its fourth quarter.

Partners

LLind XIinvested in Red Cat Holdings · Provides convertible financing and holds warrants$15.0 million funding in February 2025

FFirestormRed Cat Holdings invested in it · Holds Series A Preferred Stock investment$0.3 million SAFE investment in November 2022; converted into Series A Preferred Stock in July 2025

LLind Xinvested in Red Cat Holdings · Holds common stock purchase warrantsWarrant for 750,000 shares at $6.50 per share, exercisable for five years, issued September 2024

AeroVironment AVAVDevelop drone payload deployment capabilitiesPalantir PLTRIntegrate visual navigation software into drones

AApiumIntegrate distributed autonomy into drone systems

Changes since the previous annual report (10-K filed Aug 8, 2024)

AApiumNamed for the first time, as a partner

LLind XNamed for the first time, as a partnerWarrant for 750,000 shares at $6.50 per share, exercisable for five years, issued September 2024

LLind XINamed for the first time, as a partner$15.0 million funding in February 2025

Palantir PLTRNamed for the first time, as a partner

NNOBLENo longer named (was a partner)

Only the companies Red Cat Holdings names in its 10-K filed Mar 19, 2026 (SEC). The supply chain joins the latest annual reports of the companies on it and the 8-Ks they filed since: a link shows when either side's report names the other, so it grows as more reports are read. Hover a name for the filing's own words. Customers it does not name are listed as the filing describes them.

Is it expensive?

Currently unprofitable, so P/E does not apply, so we look at price-to-sales instead: 8.4x, above the peer median of 2.8x. Revenue is up 527% from a year ago.

Above the peer median of 2.8x. The market pays more per $1 of revenue than for peers.

Red Cat Holdings, Inc. is currently unprofitable, so P/E does not apply. We use price-to-sales instead: market cap as a multiple of revenue.

What analysts expect

The average analyst price target is $15.57, 296% above the current price; 86% of 7 analysts rate it a buy; earnings missed estimates in all of the last 4 quarters.

Buy or Strong Buy: 6 analysts (86%). Sell or Strong Sell: 0.

Since May 27, 2026 the average of the analysts' latest price targets went from $20.00 to $16.20 (−19%), while RCAT went from $10.67 to $3.93 (−63%). In the past three months targets were cut once and never raised. No firm upgraded or downgraded it over the year.

The day after each of these reports the stock moved −10.8% (Dec 2025, missed); −2.4% (Mar 2026, missed); +6.4% (Jun 2026, missed).

For the quarter ending Sep 2026 (Red Cat Holdings reports on Nov 16, 2026), analysts expect an adjusted loss of $0.18 a share, and revenue of $41M, up 322% on a year earlier. For the fiscal year ending Dec 2026, they expect revenue of $151M, up 271% on the year before.

Targets, ratings and earnings estimates: Yahoo Finance. Rating and target changes: Yahoo Finance's list of upgrades and downgrades. The average target on each day is the average of every listed firm's latest target set in the 180 days before it, so it counts fewer analysts than the average target above, and the band is the middle half of those targets (a quarter of the firms are above it, a quarter below); a target set before a stock split is divided by the split. Expected figures: the average of the analysts' estimates (Yahoo Finance). Their EPS is adjusted, as analysts estimate it, so it is set against the adjusted EPS Yahoo reports for the same quarters, not the GAAP EPS of the growth and valuation sections; revenue against the SEC filings. No change is given against a quarter whose reported EPS was more than 50% off its own estimate (often a one-off gain or charge), nor against a year that counts one. Each estimate is pinned to its fiscal period by the report date or the period's end, and one that cannot be is left out.

Where the cash goes

Capex of $19M exceeds operating cash flow of −$139M, leaving free cash flow of −$158M. The gap has to be covered with cash on hand or borrowing.

Red Cat Holdings had 137M diluted shares in the quarter ended Jun 2026, 49.9% more than a year earlier.

Free cash flow: operating cash flow minus capital spending on property, plant and equipment, from SEC filings. Shares: each quarter's diluted weighted average as filed with the SEC, since the stock's listing and its latest split.

Financial health

Current ratio 15.3, no pressure to repay short-term debt; debt-to-equity 0.0, debt is very low and the balance sheet is solid.

Latest fiscal year balance sheet. Source: Yahoo Finance.

Who holds it

In the filings of 1 fund whose copy leaves RCAT out (on the exchange, not in the app yet): Swiss National Bank.

What did the funds Hunch tracks do?

Of the 83 funds whose 13F filings Hunch reads, 2 held RCAT at the end of their latest quarter (for most, Q3 2026). Over that quarter 2 added shares and 1 sold all. The largest of them is Nomura Holdings, 432,634 shares worth $4.6M at Jun 30, 2026, 3,598.4% more than a quarter earlier.

From the 13F filings of the 83 funds Hunch tracks, not of every institution: each fund's shares of RCAT at its latest quarter end against the quarter before, as filed (long positions only, options left out), the quarter before put on the latest quarter's share count across a split. A fund files 45 days after its quarter ends, so some have a newer quarter than others. Value is at the quarter end.

Are insiders buying or selling?

Officers and directors sold $7.9M of RCAT on the open market in the 12 months to Nov 12, 2026; none bought. 59% of the sales were made under 10b5-1 plans, set up in advance. The largest was Jeffrey M Thompson (Chairman of the Board, CEO; director), who sold $4.7M in 4 sales.

From the Form 4s filed with the SEC about Red Cat Holdings, Inc. (31 in the 12 months): purchases (code P) and sales (code S) on the open market by its officers and directors, at the price each filing gives (often an average of the day's trades). A sale is a 10b5-1 sale when its filing says it was made under such a plan, set up in advance. Not counted: 21 other transactions (option exercises, shares withheld for tax, gifts and other transfers).