Moderna, Inc.

How has the stock done?

Change in closing price from the first day shown, or with Price the closing price itself. Prices: Yahoo Finance, to Nov 12, 2026. Dashed lines: the days the company released earnings (its SEC 8-K filings); EPS estimates: Yahoo Finance. The stock's move after a release runs from the last close before its day to the close the day after (or five days after), so a release before the open counts like one after the close.

Is the business growing?

In the fiscal year to Dec 2025, COVID was 93% and Stand-ready manufacturing revenue was 4% of revenue; COVID fell from 97% in the fiscal year to Dec 2023.

In the fiscal year to Dec 2025, United States was 62% and Rest of world was 36% of revenue; United States rose from 28% in the fiscal year to Dec 2023.

Quarters: Moderna, Inc.'s SEC filings, named by the month they end. Fiscal years: Moderna, Inc.'s annual reports to the SEC.

How it makes money

The company loses $145.2 for every $100 of revenue. Operating expenses exceed all of gross profit. It was profitable 3 years ago and is now loss-making.

Beyond ±100% the scale is logarithmic, so that Mar 2025's −972% and the quarters near zero both read. Circled: Jun 2023 (net −401.2%, operating −542.7%), Sep 2023 (net −198.3%, operating −109.9%), Mar 2025 (net −899.1%, operating −972.2%), Jun 2025 (net −581.0%, operating −638.7%). Net margin is usually about 12 points above operating margin; in those quarters something below operating income (a tax charge or benefit, a gain or loss on investments, a write-down) moved it, not the business itself.

Each margin is that line of the income statement divided by revenue. Fiscal year: Moderna, Inc.'s annual reports to the SEC; quarters: SEC filings.

How much goes into research?

Moderna spent $2.7B on research and development in the four quarters to Sep 2026, 105.3% of its revenue, against 155.9% a year earlier. Over the year its research spending fell 23.6% and its revenue rose 13.1%.

From Moderna, Inc.'s SEC filings: research and development expense by quarter, the fourth being the year minus nine months; its share is the four quarters' expense over their revenue. Some companies count the research they buy, through licences and acquisitions, in this line, so it jumps in the quarter they pay; others report that on a line of its own, not shown here.

How long can the cash last?

Moderna had $5.2B in cash and short-term investments at the end of Sep 2026. It burned $2.0B over the last four quarters (operating cash flow minus capital spending), so at that pace the cash lasts about 10 quarters. Its diluted share count is up 8% from two years earlier.

From Moderna, Inc.'s SEC filings: cash and cash equivalents plus short-term investments (none where none is filed) at each quarter end; free cash flow is operating cash flow minus capital spending; shares are each quarter's diluted weighted average as filed, since the stock's listing and its latest split (a 10-K gives no fourth-quarter figure). Shown while the last four quarters' operating cash flow and net income are both negative.

Customers and suppliers

In its latest annual report Moderna buys from Novocol Pharma, Cellscript, MRT; sells to FFF Enterprises. Since then its 8-K filings name Arbutus as a supplier (Mar 5, 2026), Genevant as a supplier (Mar 5, 2026).

Suppliers

A

Arbutus ABUS

Cellscript

G

Genevant

M

MRT

N

Novocol Pharma

 

MRNAModerna

Customers

F

FFF Enterprises

Moderna's 10-K for the year to Dec 2025 gives three customers' shares of its revenue: FFF Enterprises (15%), Public Works And Government Services Canada (13%) and Cardinal Health (11%).

From Moderna, Inc.'s 10-Q and 10-K filings (XBRL): each customer whose share of revenue a filing tags, under the filing's own label, so “Customer A” in one filing can be another company in the next; a later filing's figures for a period replace an earlier one's.

Partners

Blackstone BXProvides project financing for influenza vaccine study

Merck MRKDevelops and commercializes personalized mRNA cancer vaccinesWorldwide costs and profits and losses shared equally

Immatics IMTXDevelops mRNA-4203 cancer therapy

VVertexDiscovers and develops cystic fibrosis mRNA medicines

Changes since the previous annual report (10-K filed Feb 21, 2025)

NNovocol PharmaNamed for the first time, as a supplier

FFFF EnterprisesNamed for the first time, as a customer

AstraZeneca AZNNo longer named (was a partner)

CCarismaNo longer named (was a partner)

GGeneration BioNo longer named (was a partner)

Named in other companies’ filings

AbCellera Biologics ABCLco-develops with it · Develop RNA-encoded antibodiesMerck MRKlicensing deal with it · Develops and commercializes intismeran autogeneCosts and prospective profits shared equally

Only the companies Moderna names in its 10-K filed Feb 20, 2026 (SEC) and in the 8-Ks it filed since, each with its date. Named in other companies' filings: those whose own latest annual report or an 8-K since names Moderna. The supply chain joins the latest annual reports of the companies on it and the 8-Ks they filed since: a link shows when either side's report names the other, so it grows as more reports are read. Hover a name for the filing's own words.

Is it expensive?

Currently unprofitable, so P/E does not apply, so we look at price-to-sales instead: 37.1x, above the peer median of 15.2x. Revenue is up 29% from a year ago.

Above the peer median of 15.2x. The market pays more per $1 of revenue than for peers.

Moderna, Inc. is currently unprofitable, so P/E does not apply. We use price-to-sales instead: market cap as a multiple of revenue.

What analysts expect

The average analyst price target is $154, 33% below the current price; 17% of 23 analysts rate it a buy; earnings beat estimates in all of the last 4 quarters.

Buy or Strong Buy: 4 analysts (17%). Sell or Strong Sell: 3.

Over the past year the average of the analysts' latest price targets went from $26.57 to $121.75 (+358%), while MRNA went from $24.96 to $231.35 (+827%). In the past three months targets were raised 13 times and never cut. 3 upgrades and 3 downgrades over the year; the latest: William Blair moved it to Market Perform from Outperform on Oct 27, 2026.

The day after each of these reports the stock moved +9.5% (Dec 2025, beat); +3.0% (Mar 2026, beat); −4.8% (Jun 2026, beat); +11.4% (Sep 2026, beat).

For the quarter ending Dec 2026, analysts expect an adjusted loss of $2.16 a share, against a loss of $2.11 a year earlier, and revenue of $603M, down 11% on a year earlier. For the fiscal year ending Dec 2027, they expect an adjusted loss of $4.40 a share, and revenue of $2.7B, up 12% on the year before's estimate.

Targets, ratings and earnings estimates: Yahoo Finance. Rating and target changes: Yahoo Finance's list of upgrades and downgrades. The average target on each day is the average of every listed firm's latest target set in the 180 days before it, so it counts fewer analysts than the average target above, and the band is the middle half of those targets (a quarter of the firms are above it, a quarter below); a target set before a stock split is divided by the split. Expected figures: the average of the analysts' estimates (Yahoo Finance). Their EPS is adjusted, as analysts estimate it, so it is set against the adjusted EPS Yahoo reports for the same quarters, not the GAAP EPS of the growth and valuation sections; revenue against the SEC filings. No change is given against a quarter whose reported EPS was more than 50% off its own estimate (often a one-off gain or charge), nor against a year that counts one. Each estimate is pinned to its fiscal period by the report date or the period's end, and one that cannot be is left out.

Where the cash goes

Capex of $190M exceeds operating cash flow of −$1.8B, leaving free cash flow of −$2.0B. The gap has to be covered with cash on hand or borrowing.

Free cash flow: operating cash flow minus capital spending on property, plant and equipment, from SEC filings, for the last 4 quarters and by quarter.

Financial health

Current ratio 3.3, no pressure to repay short-term debt; debt-to-equity 0.1, debt is very low and the balance sheet is solid.

Latest fiscal year balance sheet. Source: Yahoo Finance.

Who holds it

2 portfolios Hunch tracks hold MRNA: 2 funds. It is 55.4% of Theleme Partners's portfolio (33.5% as filed).

• FundTheleme PartnersConcentrated fund in LondonMRNA is 55% of this portfolio34% as filed+203.1%2-year backtest
• FundBaillie Gifford &UK growth asset managerMRNA is 9% of this portfolio2% as filed+10.7%2-year backtest

MRNA's weight in each portfolio is its target weight in the copy Hunch follows: the stocks of the latest filing that the app can trade, their weights scaled up to add to 100%. “As filed” is its weight in the filing itself: a fund’s latest 13F, or a member of Congress’s holdings from the last annual report and the trades disclosed since, each at the low end of its range. Returns are backtests based on public filings, not actual trading results. Photo credits

What did the funds Hunch tracks do?

Of the 83 funds whose 13F filings Hunch reads, 10 held MRNA at the end of their latest quarter (for most, Q2 2026). Over that quarter 5 added shares, 4 cut, 1 sold all and 1 held the same. The largest of them is Baillie Gifford &, 11.44M shares worth $2.2B at Sep 30, 2026, 37.2% fewer than a quarter earlier.

From the 13F filings of the 83 funds Hunch tracks, not of every institution: each fund's shares of MRNA at its latest quarter end against the quarter before, as filed (long positions only, options left out), the quarter before put on the latest quarter's share count across a split. A fund files 45 days after its quarter ends, so some have a newer quarter than others. Value is at the quarter end. Norges Bank filed its 13F for Q1 2026 confidentially, with no holdings made public, so its row compares Q2 2026 with Q4 2025.

Are insiders buying or selling?

Officers and directors sold $52.7M of MRNA on the open market in the 12 months to Nov 12, 2026; none bought. 98% of the sales were made under 10b5-1 plans, set up in advance. The largest was Stephen Hoge (President), who sold $45.4M in 9 sales.

From the Form 4s filed with the SEC about Moderna, Inc. (65 in the 12 months): purchases (code P) and sales (code S) on the open market by its officers and directors, at the price each filing gives (often an average of the day's trades). A sale is a 10b5-1 sale when its filing says it was made under such a plan, set up in advance. Not counted: 139 other transactions (grants, option exercises, shares withheld for tax and shares sold to pay tax).