Eli Lilly and Company

How has the stock done?

Change in closing price from the first day shown, or with Price the closing price itself. Prices: Yahoo Finance, to Nov 12, 2026. Dashed lines: the days the company released earnings (its SEC 8-K filings); EPS estimates: Yahoo Finance. The stock's move after a release runs from the last close before its day to the close the day after (or five days after), so a release before the open counts like one after the close.

Is the business growing?

In the fiscal year to Dec 2025, United States was 67% and Europe was 18% of revenue; United States rose from 64% in the fiscal year to Dec 2023; China was 3%, from 5% in the fiscal year to Dec 2023.

Quarters: Eli Lilly and Company's SEC filings, named by the month they end. Fiscal years: Eli Lilly and Company's annual reports to the SEC.

How it makes money

Of every $100 in revenue, $31.7 ends up as net income. Net margin rose from 21.9% to 31.7% over the past 3 years.

Each margin is that line of the income statement divided by revenue. Fiscal year: Eli Lilly and Company's annual reports to the SEC.

How much goes into research?

Eli Lilly and Company spent $15.4B on research and development in the four quarters to Sep 2026, 17.8% of its revenue, against 21.1% a year earlier. Over the year its research spending rose 22.4% and its revenue rose 45.5%.

From Eli Lilly and Company's SEC filings: research and development expense by quarter, the fourth being the year minus nine months; its share is the four quarters' expense over their revenue. Some companies count the research they buy, through licences and acquisitions, in this line, so it jumps in the quarter they pay; others report that on a line of its own, not shown here.

Customers and suppliers

In its latest annual report Eli Lilly and Company sells to McKesson, Cencora, Cardinal Health; it names no suppliers.

 

LLYEli Lilly and Company

Customers

Cardinal Health CAH 16%

Cencora COR 16%

McKesson MCK 16%

Partners

Almirall ALM.MCLicenses Ebglyss development and commercialization in EuropeUp to $1.2 billion in sales-based milestones receivable as of December 31, 2025

Roche RO.SWLicenses worldwide lebrikizumab development and commercialization rightsUp to $975 million in potential sales-based milestones as of December 31, 2025, collectively with Genentech

GenentechLicenses worldwide lebrikizumab development and commercialization rightsUp to $975 million in potential sales-based milestones as of December 31, 2025, collectively with F. Hoffmann-La Roche

BBoehringer IngelheimCollaborates on diabetes medicines

Innovent Biologics IVBXFCollaborates on cancer treatments in China

Incyte INCYCollaborates on inflammatory disease and COVID-19 treatments

ChugaiLicenses worldwide orforglipron development and commercialization rightsTiered royalties from mid single digits to low teens on future worldwide net sales if successfully commercialized

Changes since the previous annual report (10-K filed Feb 19, 2025)

AbCellera Biologics ABCLNo longer named (was a partner)

Beam Therapeutics BEAMNo longer named (was a partner)

Named in other companies’ filings

AbCellera Biologics ABCLco-develops with it · Partner COVID-19 antibody assetRedwire RDWcalls it a partner · In-space pharmaceutical crystal growth using PIL-BOX

Only the companies Eli Lilly and Company names in its 10-K filed Feb 12, 2026 (SEC). Named in other companies' filings: those whose own latest annual report or an 8-K since names Eli Lilly and Company. The supply chain joins the latest annual reports of the companies on it and the 8-Ks they filed since: a link shows when either side's report names the other, so it grows as more reports are read. Hover a name for the filing's own words.

Is it expensive?

P/E of 46.3x, in line with the peer median of 46.8x, with earnings still growing.

In line with the peer median of 46.8x (excludes 1 unprofitable peer).

At 46.3× trailing earnings LLY is inside the middle of its five-year range; the five-year median is 54.2×.

Closing price over diluted earnings per share of the last four reported quarters, as known on each day (a quarter counts 35 days after it ends). From SEC filings; earnings per share adjusted for splits.

What analysts expect

The average analyst price target is $1,453, 2% above the current price; 84% of 31 analysts rate it a buy; earnings beat estimates in all of the last 4 quarters.

Buy or Strong Buy: 26 analysts (84%). Sell or Strong Sell: 2.

Over the past year the average of the analysts' latest price targets went from $1,026.50 to $1,482.18 (+44%), while LLY went from $1,022.87 to $1,427.28 (+40%). In the past three months targets were raised 17 times and never cut. 1 upgrade and 1 downgrade over the year; the latest: HSBC moved it to Reduce from Hold on Mar 17, 2026.

The day after each of these reports the stock moved +1.7% (Dec 2025, beat); +13.2% (Mar 2026, beat); +6.8% (Jun 2026, beat); +10.0% (Sep 2026, beat).

For the quarter ending Dec 2026, analysts expect adjusted earnings of $11.23 a share, 49% more than the $7.54 of a year earlier, and revenue of $24.8B, up 28% on a year earlier. For the fiscal year ending Dec 2027, they expect adjusted earnings of $50.54 a share, 43% more than the year before's estimate of $35.35, and revenue of $106.4B, up 16% on the year before's estimate.

Targets, ratings and earnings estimates: Yahoo Finance. Rating and target changes: Yahoo Finance's list of upgrades and downgrades. The average target on each day is the average of every listed firm's latest target set in the 180 days before it, so it counts fewer analysts than the average target above, and the band is the middle half of those targets (a quarter of the firms are above it, a quarter below); a target set before a stock split is divided by the split. Expected figures: the average of the analysts' estimates (Yahoo Finance). Their EPS is adjusted, as analysts estimate it, so it is set against the adjusted EPS Yahoo reports for the same quarters, not the GAAP EPS of the growth and valuation sections; revenue against the SEC filings. No change is given against a quarter whose reported EPS was more than 50% off its own estimate (often a one-off gain or charge), nor against a year that counts one. Each estimate is pinned to its fiscal period by the report date or the period's end, and one that cannot be is left out.

Where the cash goes

Generated $11.7B in free cash flow over the year and returned more than it generated: $11.8B went back to shareholders (dividends plus buybacks), so $130M came from cash on hand or borrowing.

Eli Lilly and Company had 893M diluted shares in the quarter ended Sep 2026, 0.6% fewer than a year earlier, and 0.3% fewer each year on average since Jun 2020. Over the last four quarters its earnings per share rose 50.7% and its net income rose 49.8%: fewer shares added about 1 point.

Free cash flow: operating cash flow minus capital spending. Last 4 quarters: Yahoo Finance, buybacks from SEC filings where they have the quarter. Shares: each quarter's diluted weighted average as filed with the SEC, since the stock's listing and its latest split.

Financial health

Current ratio 1.6, no pressure to repay short-term debt; debt-to-equity 1.6, debt is high, which adds pressure if the economy weakens.

Latest fiscal year balance sheet. Source: Yahoo Finance.

Who holds it

3 portfolios Hunch tracks hold LLY: 3 funds. It is 100.0% of Lilly Endowment's portfolio.

• FundLilly EndowmentU.S. private foundation holding Eli Lilly stockLLY is 100% of this portfolio+93.6%2-year backtest
• FundPolen Capital ManagementGrowth-stock asset managerLLY is 17% of this portfolio7% as filed+40.5%2-year backtest
• FundBlue Whale CapitalUK growth fundLLY is 11% of this portfolio3% as filed+78.0%2-year backtest

LLY's weight in each portfolio is its target weight in the copy Hunch follows: the stocks of the latest filing that the app can trade, their weights scaled up to add to 100%. “As filed” is its weight in the filing itself: a fund’s latest 13F, or a member of Congress’s holdings from the last annual report and the trades disclosed since, each at the low end of its range. Returns are backtests based on public filings, not actual trading results. Photo credits

What did the funds Hunch tracks do?

Of the 83 funds whose 13F filings Hunch reads, 22 held LLY at the end of their latest quarter (for most, Q2 2026). Over that quarter 9 added shares, 10 cut, 2 bought new and 1 held the same. The largest of them is Lilly Endowment, 90.07M shares worth $104.2B at Sep 30, 2026, 0.3% fewer than a quarter earlier.

From the 13F filings of the 83 funds Hunch tracks, not of every institution: each fund's shares of LLY at its latest quarter end against the quarter before, as filed (long positions only, options left out), the quarter before put on the latest quarter's share count across a split. A fund files 45 days after its quarter ends, so some have a newer quarter than others. Value is at the quarter end. Norges Bank filed its 13F for Q1 2026 confidentially, with no holdings made public, so its row compares Q2 2026 with Q4 2025.

Are insiders buying or selling?

Officers and directors sold $26.9M of LLY on the open market in the 12 months to Nov 12, 2026; none bought. 100% of the sales were made under 10b5-1 plans, set up in advance. The largest was Anat Hakim (EVP, GC & Secretary), who sold $13.0M in 2 sales.

From the Form 4s filed with the SEC about Eli Lilly and Company (118 in the 12 months): purchases (code P) and sales (code S) on the open market by its officers and directors, at the price each filing gives (often an average of the day's trades). A sale is a 10b5-1 sale when its filing says it was made under such a plan, set up in advance. Not counted: 118 other transactions (grants, option exercises, shares withheld for tax and gifts). Also not counted: 122 trades by holders of more than 10% who are neither officers nor directors.

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