Firefly Aerospace Inc.

How has the stock done?

Change in closing price from the first day shown, or with Price the closing price itself. Prices: Yahoo Finance, to Nov 12, 2026. Dashed lines: the days the company released earnings (its SEC 8-K filings); EPS estimates: Yahoo Finance. The stock's move after a release runs from the last close before its day to the close the day after (or five days after), so a release before the open counts like one after the close.

Is the business growing?

In the fiscal year to Dec 2025, Spacecraft Solutions Revenue was 82% and Launch Revenue was 18% of revenue; Spacecraft Solutions Revenue rose from 38% in the fiscal year to Dec 2023.

Quarters: Firefly Aerospace Inc.'s SEC filings, named by the month they end. Fiscal years: Firefly Aerospace Inc.'s annual reports to the SEC.

How it makes money

The company loses $186.6 for every $100 of revenue. Operating expenses exceed all of gross profit.

Beyond ±100% the scale is logarithmic, so that Dec 2024's −931% and the quarters near zero both read. Circled: Sep 2025 (net −433.5%, operating −202.1%), Dec 2025 (net −71.2%, operating −148.4%). Net margin is usually about 12 points below operating margin; in those quarters something below operating income (a tax charge or benefit, a gain or loss on investments, a write-down) moved it, not the business itself.

Each margin is that line of the income statement divided by revenue. Fiscal year: Firefly Aerospace Inc.'s annual reports to the SEC; quarters: SEC filings.

How long can the cash last?

Firefly Aerospace had $535M in cash and short-term investments at the end of Sep 2026. It burned $350M over the last four quarters (operating cash flow minus capital spending), so at that pace the cash lasts about 6 quarters.

From Firefly Aerospace Inc.'s SEC filings: cash and cash equivalents plus short-term investments (none where none is filed) at each quarter end; free cash flow is operating cash flow minus capital spending; shares are each quarter's diluted weighted average as filed, since the stock's listing and its latest split (a 10-K gives no fourth-quarter figure). Shown while the last four quarters' operating cash flow and net income are both negative.

How much work is already signed?

Customers had signed $549M of work Firefly Aerospace has not yet delivered at the end of Sep 2026: 1.5 years of revenue at the last four quarters' pace. New orders over those four quarters were about 0.5× revenue, so the backlog shrank.

Backlog: remaining performance obligations in Firefly Aerospace Inc.'s SEC filings, revenue under contract not yet delivered. Book-to-bill: the quarter's revenue plus the change in backlog, over the quarter's revenue.

Customers and suppliers

In its latest annual report Firefly Aerospace buys from AE Industrial Partners, AE Operating, Redwire and 1 more; sells to Northrop Grumman, Lockheed Martin, L3Harris Technologies and 1 more; one customer it does not name accounts for 59.1% of its revenue.

Suppliers

Redwire RDW

AE Industrial Partners

AE Operating

B

Belcan

 

FLYFirefly Aerospace

Customers

Unnamed customer 59%

L3Harris Technologies LHX

Lockheed Martin LMT

Northrop Grumman NOC

True Anomaly

Their customers

U.S. governmentfrom L3Harris Technologies, Lockheed Martin +1

Show 1

Firefly Aerospace's 10-Q for the quarter to Sep 2026 gives four customers' shares of its revenue: Customer One (28.9%), Customer Two (24.8%), Customer Three (17.5%) and Customer (10%).

From Firefly Aerospace Inc.'s 10-Q and 10-K filings (XBRL): each customer whose share of revenue a filing tags, under the filing's own label, so “Customer A” in one filing can be another company in the next; a later filing's figures for a period replace an earlier one's. Rings are fiscal years: a 10-K gives the year, not its fourth quarter.

Partners

AE Industrial Partnersinvested in Firefly Aerospace · Equity ownership and board nomination rightsApproximately 36.9% of common stock as of December 31, 2025

Northrop Grumman NOCCo-develop Eclipse launch vehicle

SSSCJointly launch satellites from Sweden

Only the companies Firefly Aerospace names in its 10-K filed Mar 20, 2026 (SEC). The supply chain joins the latest annual reports of the companies on it and the 8-Ks they filed since: a link shows when either side's report names the other, so it grows as more reports are read. Hover a name for the filing's own words. Customers it does not name are listed as the filing describes them.

Is it expensive?

P/E of 36.7x, in line with the peer median of 32.2x.

In line with the peer median of 32.2x.

What analysts expect

The average analyst price target is $35.73, 41% above the current price; 64% of 11 analysts rate it a buy; earnings beat estimates in all of the last 4 quarters.

Buy or Strong Buy: 7 analysts (64%). Sell or Strong Sell: 0.

Over the past year the average of the analysts' latest price targets went from $49.43 to $35.67 (−28%), while FLY went from $21.42 to $25.31 (+18%). In the past three months targets were cut twice and never raised. 2 upgrades and no downgrades over the year; the latest: Keybanc moved it to Overweight from Sector Weight on Jun 15, 2026.

The day after each of these reports the stock moved +0.1% (Dec 2025, beat); −6.7% (Mar 2026, beat); +3.0% (Jun 2026, beat); +9.5% (Sep 2026, beat).

For the quarter ending Dec 2026, analysts expect an adjusted loss of $0.49 a share, against a loss of $0.38 a year earlier, and revenue of $137M, up 137% on a year earlier. For the fiscal year ending Dec 2027, they expect an adjusted loss of $1.80 a share, against the year before's estimate of a loss of $1.87, and revenue of $686M, up 56% on the year before's estimate.

Targets, ratings and earnings estimates: Yahoo Finance. Rating and target changes: Yahoo Finance's list of upgrades and downgrades. The average target on each day is the average of every listed firm's latest target set in the 180 days before it, so it counts fewer analysts than the average target above, and the band is the middle half of those targets (a quarter of the firms are above it, a quarter below); a target set before a stock split is divided by the split. Expected figures: the average of the analysts' estimates (Yahoo Finance). Their EPS is adjusted, as analysts estimate it, so it is set against the adjusted EPS Yahoo reports for the same quarters, not the GAAP EPS of the growth and valuation sections; revenue against the SEC filings. No change is given against a quarter whose reported EPS was more than 50% off its own estimate (often a one-off gain or charge), nor against a year that counts one. Each estimate is pinned to its fiscal period by the report date or the period's end, and one that cannot be is left out.

Where the cash goes

Capex of $69M exceeds operating cash flow of −$281M, leaving free cash flow of −$350M. The gap has to be covered with cash on hand or borrowing.

Free cash flow: operating cash flow minus capital spending on property, plant and equipment, from SEC filings.

Financial health

Current ratio 4.5, no pressure to repay short-term debt; debt-to-equity 0.2, debt is very low and the balance sheet is solid.

Latest fiscal year balance sheet. Source: Yahoo Finance.

Who holds it

In the filings of 2 funds whose copy leaves FLY out (on the exchange, not in the app yet): Mirae Asset Global Investments, Swiss National Bank.

What did the funds Hunch tracks do?

Of the 83 funds whose 13F filings Hunch reads, 4 held FLY at the end of their latest quarter (for most, Q3 2026). Over that quarter 2 added shares, 2 cut and 2 sold all. The largest of them is Mirae Asset Global Investments, 1.01M shares worth $23.4M at Sep 30, 2026, 4.3% fewer than a quarter earlier.

From the 13F filings of the 83 funds Hunch tracks, not of every institution: each fund's shares of FLY at its latest quarter end against the quarter before, as filed (long positions only, options left out), the quarter before put on the latest quarter's share count across a split. A fund files 45 days after its quarter ends, so some have a newer quarter than others. Value is at the quarter end. Norges Bank filed its 13F for Q1 2026 confidentially, with no holdings made public, so its row compares Q2 2026 with Q4 2025.

Are insiders buying or selling?

Officers and directors sold $339K of FLY on the open market in the 12 months to Nov 12, 2026; none bought. 100% of the sales were made under 10b5-1 plans, set up in advance. The largest was David Leigh Wheeler (General Counsel), who sold $339K in 2 sales.

From the Form 4s filed with the SEC about Firefly Aerospace Inc. (41 in the 12 months): purchases (code P) and sales (code S) on the open market by its officers and directors, at the price each filing gives (often an average of the day's trades). A sale is a 10b5-1 sale when its filing says it was made under such a plan, set up in advance. Not counted: 41 other transactions (grants, option exercises, shares withheld for tax and other transfers). Also not counted: 2 trades by holders of more than 10% who are neither officers nor directors.