AXT, Inc.

How has the stock done?

Change in closing price from the first day shown, or with Price the closing price itself. Prices: Yahoo Finance, to Nov 12, 2026. Dashed lines: the days the company released earnings (its SEC 8-K filings); EPS estimates: Yahoo Finance. The stock's move after a release runs from the last close before its day to the close the day after (or five days after), so a release before the open counts like one after the close.

Is the business growing?

In the fiscal year to Dec 2025, Substrates was 67% and Raw Materials and Other was 33% of revenue; Substrates rose from 63% in the fiscal year to Dec 2023.

In the fiscal year to Dec 2025, China was 62% and Taiwan was 15% of revenue; China rose from 52% in the fiscal year to Dec 2023; Asia Pacific Excluding China Taiwan and Japan was 3%, from 5% in the fiscal year to Dec 2023.

Quarters: AXT, Inc.'s SEC filings, named by the month they end. Fiscal years: AXT, Inc.'s annual reports to the SEC.

How it makes money

The company loses $24.1 for every $100 of revenue. Operating expenses exceed all of gross profit. It was profitable 3 years ago and is now loss-making.

Each margin is that line of the income statement divided by revenue. Fiscal year: AXT, Inc.'s annual reports to the SEC; quarters: SEC filings.

Where it is in the chip cycle

Gross margin 44.9% and rising for 2 quarters; inventory at 387 days and falling for 2 years; capital spending 11.0% of revenue over the last 4 quarters.

Gross margin by fiscal quarter, from SEC filings. Inventory days: year-end inventory over that year's cost of revenue, times 365.

Customers and suppliers

In its latest annual report AXT names no suppliers or customers. Since then its 8-K filings name Lumentum Holdings as a customer (Jul 29, 2026), Coherent as a customer (Jul 2, 2026), Casela as a customer (Jun 17, 2026).

 

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Customers

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Casela

Their customers

NVIDIA NVDAfrom Coherent

Show 1

AXT's 10-Q for the quarter to Jun 2026 gives the share of revenue of a group of customers, not of any one: Top Five Customers (30%).

From AXT, Inc.'s 10-Q and 10-K filings (XBRL): each customer whose share of revenue a filing tags, under the filing's own label, so “Customer A” in one filing can be another company in the next; a later filing's figures for a period replace an earlier one's. A dash is a group of customers the filing gives (a government's agencies, the largest customers together, all the others): it can include the customers beside it, so the shares need not add up.

Only the companies AXT names in its 10-K filed Mar 17, 2026 (SEC) and in the 8-Ks it filed since, each with its date. The supply chain joins the latest annual reports of the companies on it and the 8-Ks they filed since: a link shows when either side's report names the other, so it grows as more reports are read. Hover a name for the filing's own words.

Is it expensive?

P/E of 88.9x, above the peer median of 34.8x, so it needs earnings to keep growing to hold up.

Priced 155% above the peer median of 34.8x.

AXTI has no trailing P/E on its latest close from SEC filings; over five years the median was 18.1×, the middle half 13.7×–25.4×.

Closing price over diluted earnings per share of the last four reported quarters, as known on each day (a quarter counts 35 days after it ends). From SEC filings; earnings per share adjusted for splits. The P/E in the key figures is Yahoo Finance's: the latest close over its trailing earnings.

What analysts expect

The average analyst price target is $91.50, 110% above the current price; 83% of 6 analysts rate it a buy; earnings beat estimates in all of the last 4 quarters.

Buy or Strong Buy: 5 analysts (83%). Sell or Strong Sell: 0.

In the past three months targets were raised once and never cut. 1 upgrade and 2 downgrades over the year; the latest: Needham moved it to Buy from Hold on Jul 31, 2026.

The day after each of these reports the stock moved +26.1% (Dec 2025, beat); +35.1% (Mar 2026, beat); +63.5% (Jun 2026, beat).

For the quarter ending Dec 2026, analysts expect adjusted earnings of $0.57 a share, against a loss of $0.05 a year earlier, and revenue of $92M, up 297% on a year earlier. For the fiscal year ending Dec 2027, they expect adjusted earnings of $2.55 a share, and revenue of $510M, up 116% on the year before's estimate.

Targets, ratings and earnings estimates: Yahoo Finance. Rating and target changes: Yahoo Finance's list of upgrades and downgrades. The average target on each day is the average of every listed firm's latest target set in the 180 days before it, so it counts fewer analysts than the average target above, and the band is the middle half of those targets (a quarter of the firms are above it, a quarter below); a target set before a stock split is divided by the split. Expected figures: the average of the analysts' estimates (Yahoo Finance). Their EPS is adjusted, as analysts estimate it, so it is set against the adjusted EPS Yahoo reports for the same quarters, not the GAAP EPS of the growth and valuation sections; revenue against the SEC filings. No change is given against a quarter whose reported EPS was more than 50% off its own estimate (often a one-off gain or charge), nor against a year that counts one. Each estimate is pinned to its fiscal period by the report date or the period's end, and one that cannot be is left out.

Where the cash goes

Capex of $14M exceeds operating cash flow of −$6M, leaving free cash flow of −$20M. The gap has to be covered with cash on hand or borrowing.

AXT had 63M diluted shares in the quarter ended Jun 2026, 45.2% more than a year earlier, and 7.8% more each year on average since Mar 2020.

Free cash flow: operating cash flow minus capital spending on property, plant and equipment, from SEC filings. Shares: each quarter's diluted weighted average as filed with the SEC, since the stock's listing and its latest split.

Financial health

Current ratio 2.7, no pressure to repay short-term debt; debt-to-equity 0.2, debt is very low and the balance sheet is solid.

Latest fiscal year balance sheet. Source: Yahoo Finance.

Who holds it

In the filings of 3 funds whose copy leaves AXTI out (on the exchange, not in the app yet): Polen Capital Management, Canada Pension Plan Investment Board, Swiss National Bank.

What did the funds Hunch tracks do?

Of the 83 funds whose 13F filings Hunch reads, 5 held AXTI at the end of their latest quarter (for most, Q2 2026). Over that quarter 4 added shares, 1 bought new and 1 sold all. The largest of them is Canada Pension Plan Investment Board, 202,800 shares worth $14.6M at Jun 30, 2026, 2,343.4% more than a quarter earlier.

From the 13F filings of the 83 funds Hunch tracks, not of every institution: each fund's shares of AXTI at its latest quarter end against the quarter before, as filed (long positions only, options left out), the quarter before put on the latest quarter's share count across a split. A fund files 45 days after its quarter ends, so some have a newer quarter than others. Value is at the quarter end.

Are insiders buying or selling?

Officers and directors sold $76.2M of AXTI on the open market in the 12 months to Nov 11, 2026; none bought. The largest was Morris S Young (CEO; director), who sold $38.7M in 10 sales.

From the Form 4s filed with the SEC about AXT, Inc. (41 in the 12 months): purchases (code P) and sales (code S) on the open market by its officers and directors, at the price each filing gives (often an average of the day's trades). A sale is a 10b5-1 sale when its filing says it was made under such a plan, set up in advance. Not counted: 26 other transactions (grants, option exercises and gifts).